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Showing posts with the label trend

State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 41 2021

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State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 41 2021 Welcome to the second episode of the blog post series "State of Dow Jones", where we look at the leading US stock index from different perspectives and try to determine how solid the current development is. Technical Chart for Dow Jones Every "State of Dow Jones" blog post should start with the technical chart, so here we go (created on tradingview.com): The Dow Jones overcame the old falling highs and the important resistance at 25 000, now trading at 35 294 points. The index is trading above its SMA 20 again and even went into the upper Envelope band. This means the Dow is slightly overheated and it is likely that the index will show a small pull-back before rising again. The RSI is at 60, three trendlines were identified and crossed during the last trading days. The technical chart provides us with enough confidence to say that the correction might be over and the outlook is neutral, or maybe even slightly bullish. Marke

Dow Jones sprinting back to neutral zone

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Dow Jones sprinting back to neutral zone Not there yet: After after a quick test of an old high from April (!), the Dow Jones aims to return to a neutral zone. Let's look at both the technical and the market breadth aspects. Technical perspective on Dow Jones Technical chart for Dow Jones created on tradingview.com   The Dow Jones fell through the lower Envelope bands and touched the old all-time high from April at ~ 33 623. Technically, the Dow Jones was in a short-term oversold zone for three trading days.   While the dip from 16th July ended at the rising trendline and was a healthy "higher low", this time the dip left the existing uptrend and also marked a "lower low" compared to the last dip (bearish on short-term). However, this was still an "higher low" compared to the dip we've seen on June the 18th (bullish on middle-term).   The price tried to return to it's SMA 20 but failed at breaking through the barrier at ~ 34 850 / 34 900. Also,

DAX falling and rebounding as expected

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DAX falling and rebounding as expected An arrogant headline, true. Market breadth data simply nailed it and yesterday, I announced on twitter that anti-cyclical traders will have their chance : Dax nearly touched the lower Envelope band today. The last time this happened was nearly two months ago. The index is trading below its SMA 20 and the McClellan Oscillator reached -2 again. Good chance to buy the dip if you're anti-cyclical. #dax #trading #marketbreadth pic.twitter.com/bmgqJmzXD9 — Boersen Klaus (@boersen_klaus) September 8, 2021   But also the technical chart provided an indication how deep the DAX might fall today. Technical chart and analysis for DAX Technical chart for DAX with Envelopes and RSI, created on tradingview.com The orange trendlines mark the ongoing mini consolidation for the DAX. The limiting line on the top was already present, but it was unclear, at least for me, where its counterpart at the bottom would appear. But after today's trading day, it

Mini break for NASDAQ 100 - for now

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Mini break for NASDAQ 100 - for now The NASDAQ 100 took a mini break from chasing new record highs and is now trading within a narrow range. Technical chart (daily) for the NASDAQ 100 Technical chart (daily) created at tradingview.com The technical chart with the simple Envelopes reveals that the index is no longer considered as overheated and the RSI confirms this. The distance to the SMA 20 remains high but declined a little bit. One earlier high at 15447 serves as a level of confidence while one level above, at 15526, proved itself as a level of support, setting the lower limit for the current trading range.   As long as the index remains above 15 447 on the daily chart, there is nothing to worry about.   Technical chart (hourly) for the NASDAQ 100   Technical chart (hourly) created at tradingview.com   Talking of trading range - the hourly chart of the NASDAQ 100 with modified Evenlope settings gives a nice impression of the current range where a mini break and mini consolidation a

Dow Jones below the SMA20 again

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Dow Jones below the SMA 20 again While the NASDAQ 100 loves to create new all-time highs, the Dow Jones seems to be eager to test its current trend range. Dow Jones: Technical situation Technical chart for Dow Jones created at tradingview.com   The Dow Jones fell through the SMA 20 line (which supported the price for more than 10 trading days), ignored the support at 35150 (see pink line in the chart) and stopped at a previously tested trendline within the bigger trend channel.    The next support is located at 34849. Since the price stopped several times at this level, it might be as well considered as a strong support area.   If the current phase of weakness should not grow into a phase of correction, it is crucial that this level will hold. After that, the limiting trendline (currently at 34540) and the lower border of the simple Envelopes (34256) could be the next targets.  From a technical point of view, the Dow Jones has potential for  0,7% - 1,5% more decline.   Market Breadth

Nikkei 225 - rally break or turnaround?

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Nikkei 225 - rally break or turnaround? After some incredible days for Japan's leading stock index it is time to look at the technical and market breadth data. Will we get a glimpse of what's about to happen next? Technical situation of Nikkei 225 Technical chart created at tradingview.com   The Nikkei 225 had a breakout and left the bullish flag behind. After three strong trading days, the price is more than 3,8% away from the upper Envelope border (simple version). According to this measurement, the index is still overheated but since the Envelopes are also rising, they will eventually be on the same level again within a couple of trading days.   Even more interesting is the fact that the SMA 20 is now ~6,7 % away and honestly, this is an extreme value. This underlines the strength of the trend, but also creates some worries since we all know that the price tends to come back to the SMA 20 at some point.    The Nikkei 225 managed to overcome the level at 29480 and the barrier