Boersen Klaus

State of DAX for Calendar Week 42 Welcome to another episode of the blog post series "State of DAX". It is October the 23th and we've only 5 trading days left in October. So far this month has brought us a small turn around because it seems like the small correction has found an end. But how healthy is the current development and what's the short-term outlook? Technical Chart for DAX As usual, we'll start with the technical chart for DAX, created on tradingview.com: The index has been trading sideways within a range of 1000 points since April this year. On October the 15th, the DAX managed to break through the trendline/flag and also climbed above the important level of 15 500. Also, the SMA 200 still acts as a comfortable level of support and the index is expected to stay above this line. Let's zoom into the chart: The index climbed above the SMA 20 and tested it on the same day (14th October), which was a good confirmation of the short-term price movement. A

State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 41 2021 Welcome to the second episode of the blog post series "State of Dow Jones", where we look at the leading US stock index from different perspectives and try to determine how solid the current development is. Technical Chart for Dow Jones Every "State of Dow Jones" blog post should start with the technical chart, so here we go (created on tradingview.com): The Dow Jones overcame the old falling highs and the important resistance at 25 000, now trading at 35 294 points. The index is trading above its SMA 20 again and even went into the upper Envelope band. This means the Dow is slightly overheated and it is likely that the index will show a small pull-back before rising again. The RSI is at 60, three trendlines were identified and crossed during the last trading days. The technical chart provides us with enough confidence to say that the correction might be over and the outlook is neutral, or maybe even slightly bullish. Marke

A quick roundup for Dow Jones Dow Jones Market Breadth With this blog post I will provide the latest market breadth data for the Dow Jones index. At the time of writing, the data for today was not delivered yet by our provider, this is why today is not yet included yet in the dashboard. Here is the long-term view of Dow Jone's market breadth data (image provided by https://www.advance-decline.net ):   The McClellan Summation Index for Dow Jones allows comparing the strength of the summer months with today's situation. We can clearly see that bulls have their troubles with the Dow Jones index. Here is the middle-term view of Dow Jone's market breadth data (image provided by https://www.advance-decline.net ) so we can get into detail: The McClellan Oscillator for Dow Jones recovered and is now above the zero line again. This is a slightly bullish sign. The McClellan Summation Index stopped declining but still has very low values. Maybe we will see a bottom here. Now to the in

State of DAX - Calender Week 39 The end of September was reached and October is finally here. What a month! September was brought the DAX losses > - 3,5%, as this blog post about relative index performance shows . People from the crypto scene are already talking about the "Uptober", because they expect that September is the weakest month of the year and it can only get better. While BitCoin, Ethereum and other crypto currencies already show signs of improvement, this can not be said for the German stock index DAX. So - where is this index standing and what can be expected from the next days or weeks? Technical Chart for DAX DAX technical chart created at tradingview.com   Let's face it: The DAX is captured within the range from 15 000 to 16 000. In this range, it is still trading below the SMA 20 and it even crossed the area around 15 000 again. Envelopes state that the index is oversold. The RSI is below 40 and points downwards, aiming at 30. That's the negative p

Dow Jones and DAX quick analysis The first trading day after the elections in Germany is over. Reason enough to take a quick look at the DAX. Its bigger brother, the Dow Jones, is always an interesting index so I don't need a particular reason for a quick analysis. DAX situation Technical chart for DAX created at tradingview.com The DAX started very good into this trading day with gains around ~ +1,21%. Experts say that many investors liked that the outcome of the elections in Germany make an unwanted constellation for a government coalition impossible. Instead, stability can be expected from the next German government. Other investors seemed to be scared of long negotiations between the parties that could form the next coalition. During the day, those gains shrunk to ~ +0,27%, but a gain is a gain. On the chart it means that the DAX continues to trade below the SMA 20, but at least it trades above the important support line at 15 500. The RSI is still below 50. Technically, the si

State of DAX - Calender Week 38 Vacation is over and another "State of DAX" report is due. During the past two weeks, we've seen a dip, realized that Evergrande in China is no longer able to pay out the investors and we still deal with the "usual" problems, such as the Corona pandemic. In addition, the amount of DAX components grew from 30 to 40. Lots of things are moving the DAX and it will be interesting to look at the state of the German stock index. Technical Chart for DAX DAX technical chart created at tradingview.com The DAX fell through the lower Envelope band and gave a clear oversold signal on the short-term time window. At the moment, the price is again between the Envelope bands but failed to reconquer the SMA 20. As long as the price is between the SMA 20 and the lower Envelope band, I speak of a bearish or weak phase on the short-term time window. At least the DAX managed to trade above 15 500 again, an important area of support and resistance. Howe

Dow Jones sprinting back to neutral zone Not there yet: After after a quick test of an old high from April (!), the Dow Jones aims to return to a neutral zone. Let's look at both the technical and the market breadth aspects. Technical perspective on Dow Jones Technical chart for Dow Jones created on tradingview.com   The Dow Jones fell through the lower Envelope bands and touched the old all-time high from April at ~ 33 623. Technically, the Dow Jones was in a short-term oversold zone for three trading days.   While the dip from 16th July ended at the rising trendline and was a healthy "higher low", this time the dip left the existing uptrend and also marked a "lower low" compared to the last dip (bearish on short-term). However, this was still an "higher low" compared to the dip we've seen on June the 18th (bullish on middle-term).   The price tried to return to it's SMA 20 but failed at breaking through the barrier at ~ 34 850 / 34 900. Also,

State of DAX - Calendar Week 36 Another seven days have passed since the last episode of our blog post series about the "State of DAX". This time we're looking at a trading week with a small loss (> 1%) while we are in the middle of a period with weak seasonality. Corona, Afghanistan, upcoming elections here in Germany, challenges for the economy, inflation and "interest angst" - there is plenty of reason for investors to stand on the sideline. Oh, and at the end of this month, we will be looking at the DAX 40 instead of the DAX 30. There will be much to talk about in the next weeks!   But let's focus on the state of the leading German stock index by looking at the data. Technical Chart for DAX   DAX technical chart created at tradingview.com   On last Thursday, the DAX touched the lower Envelope band, giving a short-term and small "oversold" signal. On Friday, the index managed to gain some ground again, moving away from the Envelopes, but stil

Dow Jones Roundup - Technical and Market Breadth This week played along with weak seasonality, providing no tailwind for the Dow Jones. After 4 trading days this week, losses have stacked up to ~ 2,16%. Reason enough for us to have a quick look at the leading US index. Dow Jones Technical Chart Technical chart for Dow Jones created at tradingview.com At first it looked like the zone around 34 900 might provide a level of support for the Dow Jones on its way down, but one trading day later the price fell through this area and landed on the trendline we've seen since mid of June. The last time this trendline acted as a spring-board back to the top. Will it be the same this time? The chance could be higher that the Dow Jones will remain near the 34 900 area for a while than the other scenario we've seen last time, where another short-term rally was started. On Friday, the upper boundaries of the lower Envelopes band crossed the trendline, so this was a strong indicator that the cu

Mini break for NASDAQ 100 - for now The NASDAQ 100 took a mini break from chasing new record highs and is now trading within a narrow range. Technical chart (daily) for the NASDAQ 100 Technical chart (daily) created at tradingview.com The technical chart with the simple Envelopes reveals that the index is no longer considered as overheated and the RSI confirms this. The distance to the SMA 20 remains high but declined a little bit. One earlier high at 15447 serves as a level of confidence while one level above, at 15526, proved itself as a level of support, setting the lower limit for the current trading range.   As long as the index remains above 15 447 on the daily chart, there is nothing to worry about.   Technical chart (hourly) for the NASDAQ 100   Technical chart (hourly) created at tradingview.com   Talking of trading range - the hourly chart of the NASDAQ 100 with modified Evenlope settings gives a nice impression of the current range where a mini break and mini consolidation a

Dow Jones below the SMA 20 again While the NASDAQ 100 loves to create new all-time highs, the Dow Jones seems to be eager to test its current trend range. Dow Jones: Technical situation Technical chart for Dow Jones created at tradingview.com   The Dow Jones fell through the SMA 20 line (which supported the price for more than 10 trading days), ignored the support at 35150 (see pink line in the chart) and stopped at a previously tested trendline within the bigger trend channel.    The next support is located at 34849. Since the price stopped several times at this level, it might be as well considered as a strong support area.   If the current phase of weakness should not grow into a phase of correction, it is crucial that this level will hold. After that, the limiting trendline (currently at 34540) and the lower border of the simple Envelopes (34256) could be the next targets.  From a technical point of view, the Dow Jones has potential for  0,7% - 1,5% more decline.   Market Breadth

State of DAX - Calendar Week 35 It is Sunday again and with the end of this calendar week it is time to look back on the last five trading days and determine the "State of DAX". Before we do that, we take a short look on the recently announced stocks which will increse the DAX member count by 10, from DAX30 to DAX40: Airbus SE Zalando SE Siemens Healthineers AG Symrise AG HelloFresh SE Sartorius AG Vz Porsche Automobil Holding Brenntag SE Puma SE Qiagen N.V. The DAX 30 will be trading as the DAX 40 for the first time on September the 20th. Market Breadth for DAX 30   Here is the latest market breadth data for the German stock index DAX30: Market Breadth Data for DAX provided by https://www.advance-decline.net The Advance Decline Line for DAX declined more than the index did, which could be a sign of weakness. It means that probably only few DAX components hold up the flag for this index. The Advanced vs. Declined data was captured within a narrow range, with a breakout on th

End of correction for the Nikkei 225? Technical chart of the Nikkei 225, the leading stock index in Japan Source: tradingview.com The Nikkei 225 has seen several strong days after bouncing from the support level at 27 000. During the last trading days, it looked like the price will stop at the upper border of the Envelopes (see technical chart above). However, there was some tailwind from politics today which led to another strong trading day. In my version of the technical chart, the Nikkei 225 stopped at the limiting trendline. When looking at the Envelopes, the index is now overheated. The next two treading days will show if the Nikkei 225 will keep its momentum and overcome the limiting area. If so, and if confirmed by another candle, the index will have some potential to maybe 30 700 on the middle timeframe. However, with a distance of roughly 5,7% from the SMA 20, it is unlikely that the index will continue at this speed.  Market Breadth Data for Nikkei 225 The Advance Decline fo

Dow Jones somewhat in the middle of nowhere   Technical chart (1h) of the Dow Jones index Source: tradingview.com  The Dow Jones remains on a high level in a sideways phase for roughly 10 consecutive days. The SMA 20 (orange line) works as a stabilizer for now, although we've seen a dip beneath this line during the day. The Dow Jones also moves within a trend channel  (see image above). Right in the middle of this channel another trendline emerged, at apparently the SMA20 and this "middle trendline" come close today. So for now, this area seems to be a strong support.    You know that I am a big fan of the Envelopes indicator, since it is a very simple way to find out if an index is overheated or not. I've added a very simple version of the Envelopes to the chart above. As you can see, it confirms that the Dow Jones seems to be in the middle of nowhere because the price dances around the middle of the Envelopes as well (and the middle is the SMA 20 line). The red line