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Showing posts with the label technical analysis

State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 41 2021

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State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 41 2021 Welcome to the second episode of the blog post series "State of Dow Jones", where we look at the leading US stock index from different perspectives and try to determine how solid the current development is. Technical Chart for Dow Jones Every "State of Dow Jones" blog post should start with the technical chart, so here we go (created on tradingview.com): The Dow Jones overcame the old falling highs and the important resistance at 25 000, now trading at 35 294 points. The index is trading above its SMA 20 again and even went into the upper Envelope band. This means the Dow is slightly overheated and it is likely that the index will show a small pull-back before rising again. The RSI is at 60, three trendlines were identified and crossed during the last trading days. The technical chart provides us with enough confidence to say that the correction might be over and the outlook is neutral, or maybe even slightly bullish. Marke

State of DAX - Calender Week 41 2021

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 State of DAX for Calender Week 41 Welcome to this week's blog post about the state of the DAX. Those who follow us on Twitter might have seen a tweet from Wednesday, stating that there are small signs that the current situations might become better soon:   German stock index #dax - recovery started? #marketbreadth data gets a little bit better (SMA data on first image delayed by one trading day). #dax40 must close above 15 270. SMA 20 is at 15308 (XETRA). pic.twitter.com/LmD3hCF6Dj — Boersen Klaus (@boersen_klaus) October 13, 2021   Shortly afterwards, the DAX began it's climb on the chart. Are we out of the trouble yet? Let's determine that by looking at the index from different perspectives.   Technical Chart for DAX As usual, we'll start with the technical chart for DAX,created on tradingview.com: The SMA 200 band has provided a confident level of support and the DAX managed to climb above the resistance levels 15 270 and 15 500. Also, the falling trendline was

Dow Jones sprinting back to neutral zone

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Dow Jones sprinting back to neutral zone Not there yet: After after a quick test of an old high from April (!), the Dow Jones aims to return to a neutral zone. Let's look at both the technical and the market breadth aspects. Technical perspective on Dow Jones Technical chart for Dow Jones created on tradingview.com   The Dow Jones fell through the lower Envelope bands and touched the old all-time high from April at ~ 33 623. Technically, the Dow Jones was in a short-term oversold zone for three trading days.   While the dip from 16th July ended at the rising trendline and was a healthy "higher low", this time the dip left the existing uptrend and also marked a "lower low" compared to the last dip (bearish on short-term). However, this was still an "higher low" compared to the dip we've seen on June the 18th (bullish on middle-term).   The price tried to return to it's SMA 20 but failed at breaking through the barrier at ~ 34 850 / 34 900. Also,

Dow Jones below the SMA20 again

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Dow Jones below the SMA 20 again While the NASDAQ 100 loves to create new all-time highs, the Dow Jones seems to be eager to test its current trend range. Dow Jones: Technical situation Technical chart for Dow Jones created at tradingview.com   The Dow Jones fell through the SMA 20 line (which supported the price for more than 10 trading days), ignored the support at 35150 (see pink line in the chart) and stopped at a previously tested trendline within the bigger trend channel.    The next support is located at 34849. Since the price stopped several times at this level, it might be as well considered as a strong support area.   If the current phase of weakness should not grow into a phase of correction, it is crucial that this level will hold. After that, the limiting trendline (currently at 34540) and the lower border of the simple Envelopes (34256) could be the next targets.  From a technical point of view, the Dow Jones has potential for  0,7% - 1,5% more decline.   Market Breadth

Nikkei 225 - rally break or turnaround?

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Nikkei 225 - rally break or turnaround? After some incredible days for Japan's leading stock index it is time to look at the technical and market breadth data. Will we get a glimpse of what's about to happen next? Technical situation of Nikkei 225 Technical chart created at tradingview.com   The Nikkei 225 had a breakout and left the bullish flag behind. After three strong trading days, the price is more than 3,8% away from the upper Envelope border (simple version). According to this measurement, the index is still overheated but since the Envelopes are also rising, they will eventually be on the same level again within a couple of trading days.   Even more interesting is the fact that the SMA 20 is now ~6,7 % away and honestly, this is an extreme value. This underlines the strength of the trend, but also creates some worries since we all know that the price tends to come back to the SMA 20 at some point.    The Nikkei 225 managed to overcome the level at 29480 and the barrier

State of NASDAQ 100 on last day in August 2021

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State of NASDAQ 100 on the last day in August 2021 Despite the summer season, the NASDAQ 100 index leaves August with gains as high as ~ 3,6 %.    What is the outlook for September? Here is the... Latest Market Breadth Data for NASDAQ 100     NASDAQ 100 Market Breadth Data Visualizations by advance-decline.net As expected yesterday , the NASDAQ 100 bounced away from the border of the upper Envelope band but still remained within the upper band. This means the index is slightly overheated on the daily time frame. The Advanced vs. Declined Data is negative for today.  The McClellan Oscillator also declined, but is still positive. The McClellan Summation Index, however, is climbing, but still negative. NASDAQ 100 Outlook for September Obviously, I can't make any predictions. The seasonality is again not strong for the first weeks of September, and on the technical chart, the Nasdaq 100 just bounced away from an important trend line. At the moment, the chart provides several limits fo

NASDAQ 100 Market Breadth - Will this index continue to advance?

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NASDAQ 100 Market Breadth - Where will the leading tech index go? Yesterday I already covered the Nasdaq 100 index and its market breadth data. Today I want to check what changed and if I was right about today's development: Advanced vs. Declined reached a positive extreme today, so there is a high chance that the index will have only small or no advances during the next trading day at all.  This turned out to be true. The Nasdaq 100 gained 0,29% today, which is good, but it's not a big jump. Advanced vs. Declined Data was in good balance today, so for tomorrow, there would be much room on the positive and the negative extreme. Technical analysts might look at the chart and see three things: There was a light bearish divergence with the RSI during the last weeks (but it's resolved now) The NASDAQ 100 is near a topping trend line which was touched end of July for the last time The NASDAQ 100 reached the upper side of a statistic corridor, meaning it is highly unlikly that