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Showing posts with the label mcclellan summation index

State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 41 2021

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State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 41 2021 Welcome to the second episode of the blog post series "State of Dow Jones", where we look at the leading US stock index from different perspectives and try to determine how solid the current development is. Technical Chart for Dow Jones Every "State of Dow Jones" blog post should start with the technical chart, so here we go (created on tradingview.com): The Dow Jones overcame the old falling highs and the important resistance at 25 000, now trading at 35 294 points. The index is trading above its SMA 20 again and even went into the upper Envelope band. This means the Dow is slightly overheated and it is likely that the index will show a small pull-back before rising again. The RSI is at 60, three trendlines were identified and crossed during the last trading days. The technical chart provides us with enough confidence to say that the correction might be over and the outlook is neutral, or maybe even slightly bullish. Marke

State of DAX - Calendar Week 38

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State of DAX - Calender Week 38 Vacation is over and another "State of DAX" report is due. During the past two weeks, we've seen a dip, realized that Evergrande in China is no longer able to pay out the investors and we still deal with the "usual" problems, such as the Corona pandemic. In addition, the amount of DAX components grew from 30 to 40. Lots of things are moving the DAX and it will be interesting to look at the state of the German stock index. Technical Chart for DAX DAX technical chart created at tradingview.com The DAX fell through the lower Envelope band and gave a clear oversold signal on the short-term time window. At the moment, the price is again between the Envelope bands but failed to reconquer the SMA 20. As long as the price is between the SMA 20 and the lower Envelope band, I speak of a bearish or weak phase on the short-term time window. At least the DAX managed to trade above 15 500 again, an important area of support and resistance. Howe

Dow Jones sprinting back to neutral zone

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Dow Jones sprinting back to neutral zone Not there yet: After after a quick test of an old high from April (!), the Dow Jones aims to return to a neutral zone. Let's look at both the technical and the market breadth aspects. Technical perspective on Dow Jones Technical chart for Dow Jones created on tradingview.com   The Dow Jones fell through the lower Envelope bands and touched the old all-time high from April at ~ 33 623. Technically, the Dow Jones was in a short-term oversold zone for three trading days.   While the dip from 16th July ended at the rising trendline and was a healthy "higher low", this time the dip left the existing uptrend and also marked a "lower low" compared to the last dip (bearish on short-term). However, this was still an "higher low" compared to the dip we've seen on June the 18th (bullish on middle-term).   The price tried to return to it's SMA 20 but failed at breaking through the barrier at ~ 34 850 / 34 900. Also,

Dow Jones Roundup (10.09.2021)

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Dow Jones Roundup - Technical and Market Breadth This week played along with weak seasonality, providing no tailwind for the Dow Jones. After 4 trading days this week, losses have stacked up to ~ 2,16%. Reason enough for us to have a quick look at the leading US index. Dow Jones Technical Chart Technical chart for Dow Jones created at tradingview.com At first it looked like the zone around 34 900 might provide a level of support for the Dow Jones on its way down, but one trading day later the price fell through this area and landed on the trendline we've seen since mid of June. The last time this trendline acted as a spring-board back to the top. Will it be the same this time? The chance could be higher that the Dow Jones will remain near the 34 900 area for a while than the other scenario we've seen last time, where another short-term rally was started. On Friday, the upper boundaries of the lower Envelopes band crossed the trendline, so this was a strong indicator that the cu

DAX falling and rebounding as expected

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DAX falling and rebounding as expected An arrogant headline, true. Market breadth data simply nailed it and yesterday, I announced on twitter that anti-cyclical traders will have their chance : Dax nearly touched the lower Envelope band today. The last time this happened was nearly two months ago. The index is trading below its SMA 20 and the McClellan Oscillator reached -2 again. Good chance to buy the dip if you're anti-cyclical. #dax #trading #marketbreadth pic.twitter.com/bmgqJmzXD9 — Boersen Klaus (@boersen_klaus) September 8, 2021   But also the technical chart provided an indication how deep the DAX might fall today. Technical chart and analysis for DAX Technical chart for DAX with Envelopes and RSI, created on tradingview.com The orange trendlines mark the ongoing mini consolidation for the DAX. The limiting line on the top was already present, but it was unclear, at least for me, where its counterpart at the bottom would appear. But after today's trading day, it

Mini break for NASDAQ 100 - for now

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Mini break for NASDAQ 100 - for now The NASDAQ 100 took a mini break from chasing new record highs and is now trading within a narrow range. Technical chart (daily) for the NASDAQ 100 Technical chart (daily) created at tradingview.com The technical chart with the simple Envelopes reveals that the index is no longer considered as overheated and the RSI confirms this. The distance to the SMA 20 remains high but declined a little bit. One earlier high at 15447 serves as a level of confidence while one level above, at 15526, proved itself as a level of support, setting the lower limit for the current trading range.   As long as the index remains above 15 447 on the daily chart, there is nothing to worry about.   Technical chart (hourly) for the NASDAQ 100   Technical chart (hourly) created at tradingview.com   Talking of trading range - the hourly chart of the NASDAQ 100 with modified Evenlope settings gives a nice impression of the current range where a mini break and mini consolidation a

Crypto Market Breadth according to BitPanda's Crypto Index BCI 10 (08.09.2021)

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Crypto Market Breadth according to BitPanda's Crypto Index BCI 10 (08.09.2021) BitPanda's Crypto Index BCI 10 has 10 components. It does not mirror the whole crypto market, but gives an impression about how crypto is currently doing.   Here is the market breadth data for the crypto index BCI 10: Market breadth data for BitPanda's crypto index BCI 10 provided by www.advance-decline.net   The market breadth data surely reflects the current development, meaning the little sell-off we saw during the last 24 hours. We now see less crypto currencies trading above their SMA 50, 100 and 200. The decline is particular strong for the percentage of members trading above their SMA 200 (current value is 60% compared to 2 trading days before where we had 100%). The McClellan Oscillator fell below the zero line and the McCllellan Summation Index started its decline (but is still on a high level, though). If only looking at market breadth, the current state is nothing more than a necessary

Nikkei 225 - rally break or turnaround?

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Nikkei 225 - rally break or turnaround? After some incredible days for Japan's leading stock index it is time to look at the technical and market breadth data. Will we get a glimpse of what's about to happen next? Technical situation of Nikkei 225 Technical chart created at tradingview.com   The Nikkei 225 had a breakout and left the bullish flag behind. After three strong trading days, the price is more than 3,8% away from the upper Envelope border (simple version). According to this measurement, the index is still overheated but since the Envelopes are also rising, they will eventually be on the same level again within a couple of trading days.   Even more interesting is the fact that the SMA 20 is now ~6,7 % away and honestly, this is an extreme value. This underlines the strength of the trend, but also creates some worries since we all know that the price tends to come back to the SMA 20 at some point.    The Nikkei 225 managed to overcome the level at 29480 and the barrier

State of DAX - Calendar Week 35

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State of DAX - Calendar Week 35 It is Sunday again and with the end of this calendar week it is time to look back on the last five trading days and determine the "State of DAX". Before we do that, we take a short look on the recently announced stocks which will increse the DAX member count by 10, from DAX30 to DAX40: Airbus SE Zalando SE Siemens Healthineers AG Symrise AG HelloFresh SE Sartorius AG Vz Porsche Automobil Holding Brenntag SE Puma SE Qiagen N.V. The DAX 30 will be trading as the DAX 40 for the first time on September the 20th. Market Breadth for DAX 30   Here is the latest market breadth data for the German stock index DAX30: Market Breadth Data for DAX provided by https://www.advance-decline.net The Advance Decline Line for DAX declined more than the index did, which could be a sign of weakness. It means that probably only few DAX components hold up the flag for this index. The Advanced vs. Declined data was captured within a narrow range, with a breakout on th

End of correction for Nikkei 225?

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End of correction for the Nikkei 225? Technical chart of the Nikkei 225, the leading stock index in Japan Source: tradingview.com The Nikkei 225 has seen several strong days after bouncing from the support level at 27 000. During the last trading days, it looked like the price will stop at the upper border of the Envelopes (see technical chart above). However, there was some tailwind from politics today which led to another strong trading day. In my version of the technical chart, the Nikkei 225 stopped at the limiting trendline. When looking at the Envelopes, the index is now overheated. The next two treading days will show if the Nikkei 225 will keep its momentum and overcome the limiting area. If so, and if confirmed by another candle, the index will have some potential to maybe 30 700 on the middle timeframe. However, with a distance of roughly 5,7% from the SMA 20, it is unlikely that the index will continue at this speed.  Market Breadth Data for Nikkei 225 The Advance Decline fo

Dow Jones somewhat in the middle of nowhere

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Dow Jones somewhat in the middle of nowhere   Technical chart (1h) of the Dow Jones index Source: tradingview.com  The Dow Jones remains on a high level in a sideways phase for roughly 10 consecutive days. The SMA 20 (orange line) works as a stabilizer for now, although we've seen a dip beneath this line during the day. The Dow Jones also moves within a trend channel  (see image above). Right in the middle of this channel another trendline emerged, at apparently the SMA20 and this "middle trendline" come close today. So for now, this area seems to be a strong support.    You know that I am a big fan of the Envelopes indicator, since it is a very simple way to find out if an index is overheated or not. I've added a very simple version of the Envelopes to the chart above. As you can see, it confirms that the Dow Jones seems to be in the middle of nowhere because the price dances around the middle of the Envelopes as well (and the middle is the SMA 20 line). The red line

NASDAQ 100 following a strong trendline

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NASDAQ 100 following a strong trendline I've been covering the NASDAQ 100 multiple times during the last days as you've seen. The reason for this is that this leading tech index shows an incredible strength despite the Tapering discussions and the various risks which emerged during the last weeks. Together with you, I want to understand where the chances and risks are for this index. NASDAQ 100 Chart Source: tradingview.com The image above shows a simple NASDAQ 100 chart with the leading trendlines. As you can see, there is a corridor limited by a supporting trendline and a line which might be a resistance line. The index has touched this upper line multiple times and has been trading just beneath it for four days in a row. I believe that this trendline is of great importance and chances are high that the NASDAQ 100 will not cross it soon (just my personal opinion). At the moment, this trendline also crosses the upper border of the Envelopes, so there is even another resistance

TecDax incredibly strong 01.09.2021

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 TecDax - current state The German tech stock index TecDax shows an incredible strength. According to the market breadth data available on advance-decline.net , the TecDax is no longer overheated but remains on high levels. The price is currently a few milimeters below the upper Envelopes band.  The McClellan Summation Index shows the highest value for weeks, but the McClellan Oscillator is actually jumping towards the zero line. This could be a warn signal that an important area will be reached soon and that the index will stop its fulminant rally.

Nikkei 225 slightly overheated 01.09.2021

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Nikkei slightly overheated New month, new "overheated" alert! From my point of view, the Nikkei 225 looks slightly overheated after breaking out from lower levels. Nikkei 225 Market Breadth and Envelopes The price touched the envelopes and almost reached the border of the upper band. The last time the Nikkei 225 crossed the upper Envelopes band was in February 2021. Since then, every time it touched the upper band, it bounced back one trading day later. The Advance decline Line did not rise above the last high, which is some kind of divergence.  The McClellan Oscillator for Nikkei 225 reached the highest level since mid August and the McClellan Summation Index for Nikkei 225 just touched the value 30 line. From a technical point of view, this index is now looking stronger than during the last weeks. It will be interesting to see if the break out will continue. PS: The Nikkei 225 closed above the SMA 200 today. It was closing above the SMA 20 two trading days ago.

State of NASDAQ 100 on last day in August 2021

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State of NASDAQ 100 on the last day in August 2021 Despite the summer season, the NASDAQ 100 index leaves August with gains as high as ~ 3,6 %.    What is the outlook for September? Here is the... Latest Market Breadth Data for NASDAQ 100     NASDAQ 100 Market Breadth Data Visualizations by advance-decline.net As expected yesterday , the NASDAQ 100 bounced away from the border of the upper Envelope band but still remained within the upper band. This means the index is slightly overheated on the daily time frame. The Advanced vs. Declined Data is negative for today.  The McClellan Oscillator also declined, but is still positive. The McClellan Summation Index, however, is climbing, but still negative. NASDAQ 100 Outlook for September Obviously, I can't make any predictions. The seasonality is again not strong for the first weeks of September, and on the technical chart, the Nasdaq 100 just bounced away from an important trend line. At the moment, the chart provides several limits fo

NASDAQ 100 unchained on 30.08.2021

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NASDAQ 100 Unchained Despite my estimation I published with yesterday's blog post , the Nasdaq 100 managed to climb another 1,12% today.  What's our perspective on the current situation?   NASDAQ 100 Market Breadth Data and Envelopes Source: Nasdaq 100 Market Breadth Data    The price stopped at the top border of the upper Envelope band . Really, chances are now very high that the price will move into the opposite direction during the next trading day. Breaking through the upper band is a rare event and happened once per 3 months during the last year (it's not entirely correct, but you get the point). Nasdaq 100 Advances vs. Declines actually declined today. The McClellan Oscillator gives very bullish signals while the McClellan Summation Index is moving towards the zero line with medium speed.

State of Dax - Calendar Week 34

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State of DAX - Calendar Week 34 Another week has passed and we are looking again at the state of Germany's most important stock index, the DAX (30). I've put the number of index components behind the index name since this number will change soon. During mid September, the DAX will house 40 members and we are prepared to reflect this change in our tools and charts. Nervertheless, we still do have 30 Dax members and we are now ready to check on what we call the "health state" of the DAX. Quick overview: Market Breadth Data for DAX Before digging through the market breadth data and what it means, we shall have a look at our huge chart dashboard, containing the most relevant market breadth indicators for the DAX: Market Breadth for DAX: Deep dive It has been an interesting trading week with only little to gain for the DAX. Despite the seasonality, this index is holding up pretty good and we've seen no big dumps so far. But what does the market breadth data tell us? Ad

NIFTY: Market Breadth Data added for six NIFTY indices

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NIFTY stock indices from India: Market Breadth Data for six NIFTY stock indices added to our collection   With great pleasure we announce that we managed to add six stock indices from India to our collection. You can find them on our website for market breadth data (see screenshot above). What market breadth data we'll provide for the NIFTY indices We added six of the NIFTY indices, and for all of them we aim to provide the same relevant market breadth data: NIFTY 50 Advance Decline Line for NIFTY 50 Advanced vs. Declined for NIFTY 50 McClellan Oscillator for NIFTY 50 McClellan Summation Index for NIFTY 50 NIFTY 100 Advance Decline Line for NIFTY 100 Advanced vs. Declined for NIFTY 100 McClellan Oscillator for NIFTY 100 McClellan Summation Index for NIFTY 100 NIFTY 500 Advance Decline Line for NIFTY 500 Advanced vs. Declined for NIFTY 500 McClellan Oscillator for NIFTY 500 McClellan Summation Index for NIFTY 50 NIFTY NEXT 50 Advance Decline Line for NIFTY NEXT 50 Advanced vs. Dec

BCI10 Crypto Index from BitPanda what's happening right now?

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BitPandas BCI 10 Crypto Index: What's happening right now? After a strong weekend for crypto, some major currencies seem to take a break from the rally. The BCI 10 Crypto Index represents 10 crypto currencies and might help us to understand: What's happening right now?   Before I start writing, let's look at the BCI10 Crypto Market Breadth data:   Source: https://www.advance-decline.net/crypto-indices/bci-10/ Dissecting the Crypto Market Breadth Data Some would say crypto was overheated a bit after the last strong weekend.  The McClellan Oscillator dances with its zero line, while the McClellan Summation Index seems to have created a top. Values for this indicator are very high, comparable to the golden times from the beginning of the year. The percentage of BCI 10 members trading above their SMA 50 is very high. The percentage of BCI 10 members trading above their SMA 100 is very high. The percentage of BCI 10 members trading above their SMA 200 is continuously rising and

Nikkei 225: Buy signal close?

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Nikkei 225 Japan stock index: Is a buy signal close?   The technical chart doesn't look so good for the Nikkei 225. It has been showing lower lows for quite a while now and it failed to form a bottom during the last two weeks. Let's check where we are standing with the market breadth data?   As you can see, the long-term indicator McClellan Summation Index formed a top and then began its rapid decline. It's a positive thing, however, that it did not decline any further during this trading day. The short-term indicator McClellan Oscillator has been below the zero line for 6 days in a row and is now near zero again.  Some consider crossing the zero line a buying signal, so one could hope for a good trading session tomorrow and then have a trigger for a long trade. It's not so clear for me, though. The secondary trend of the Nikkei 225 is downwards, meaning one would buy against the current trend. So if you are looking for a buy signal, maybe combine positive market breadt

NASDAQ 100 Market Breadth - Will this index continue to advance?

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NASDAQ 100 Market Breadth - Where will the leading tech index go? Yesterday I already covered the Nasdaq 100 index and its market breadth data. Today I want to check what changed and if I was right about today's development: Advanced vs. Declined reached a positive extreme today, so there is a high chance that the index will have only small or no advances during the next trading day at all.  This turned out to be true. The Nasdaq 100 gained 0,29% today, which is good, but it's not a big jump. Advanced vs. Declined Data was in good balance today, so for tomorrow, there would be much room on the positive and the negative extreme. Technical analysts might look at the chart and see three things: There was a light bearish divergence with the RSI during the last weeks (but it's resolved now) The NASDAQ 100 is near a topping trend line which was touched end of July for the last time The NASDAQ 100 reached the upper side of a statistic corridor, meaning it is highly unlikly that