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Showing posts with the label market breadth

State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 41 2021

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State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 41 2021 Welcome to the second episode of the blog post series "State of Dow Jones", where we look at the leading US stock index from different perspectives and try to determine how solid the current development is. Technical Chart for Dow Jones Every "State of Dow Jones" blog post should start with the technical chart, so here we go (created on tradingview.com): The Dow Jones overcame the old falling highs and the important resistance at 25 000, now trading at 35 294 points. The index is trading above its SMA 20 again and even went into the upper Envelope band. This means the Dow is slightly overheated and it is likely that the index will show a small pull-back before rising again. The RSI is at 60, three trendlines were identified and crossed during the last trading days. The technical chart provides us with enough confidence to say that the correction might be over and the outlook is neutral, or maybe even slightly bullish. Marke

State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 41 2021

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State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 41 2021 Welcome to the second episode of the blog post series "State of Dow Jones", where we look at the leading US stock index from different perspectives and try to determine how solid the current development is. Technical Chart for Dow Jones Every "State of Dow Jones" blog post should start with the technical chart, so here we go (created on tradingview.com): The Dow Jones overcame the old falling highs and the important resistance at 25 000, now trading at 35 294 points. The index is trading above its SMA 20 again and even went into the upper Envelope band. This means the Dow is slightly overheated and it is likely that the index will show a small pull-back before rising again. The RSI is at 60, three trendlines were identified and crossed during the last trading days. The technical chart provides us with enough confidence to say that the correction might be over and the outlook is neutral, or maybe even slightly bullish. Marke

State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 40

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State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 40 I publish the "State of DAX" report every weekend, and after I've added some tooling to calculate the same market breadth data for the Dow Jones as well, I've decided that I can also publish a report on the state of the Dow Jones index. Those "reports" are just simple blog posts which try to interpret the current technical and market breadth situation, from my personal perspective and with my limited knowledge. "State of Dow Jones" might be a name that is too big for this blog post series, but I can't think of any other (good) name at the moment. So here we are, starting a new blog post series. Welcome and let's start!   Technical Chart for Dow Jones Total gains/losses for the Dow Jones in October so far: ~ 1,22% Here is the current technical chart for the Dow Jones index, created on tradingview.com: The Dow Jones has seen some interesting trading days! The range between 33 227 and 33 810 is a very impo

Dow Jones roundup

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A quick roundup for Dow Jones Dow Jones Market Breadth With this blog post I will provide the latest market breadth data for the Dow Jones index. At the time of writing, the data for today was not delivered yet by our provider, this is why today is not yet included yet in the dashboard. Here is the long-term view of Dow Jone's market breadth data (image provided by https://www.advance-decline.net ):   The McClellan Summation Index for Dow Jones allows comparing the strength of the summer months with today's situation. We can clearly see that bulls have their troubles with the Dow Jones index. Here is the middle-term view of Dow Jone's market breadth data (image provided by https://www.advance-decline.net ) so we can get into detail: The McClellan Oscillator for Dow Jones recovered and is now above the zero line again. This is a slightly bullish sign. The McClellan Summation Index stopped declining but still has very low values. Maybe we will see a bottom here. Now to the in

Dow Jones and DAX quick analysis

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Dow Jones and DAX quick analysis The first trading day after the elections in Germany is over. Reason enough to take a quick look at the DAX. Its bigger brother, the Dow Jones, is always an interesting index so I don't need a particular reason for a quick analysis. DAX situation Technical chart for DAX created at tradingview.com The DAX started very good into this trading day with gains around ~ +1,21%. Experts say that many investors liked that the outcome of the elections in Germany make an unwanted constellation for a government coalition impossible. Instead, stability can be expected from the next German government. Other investors seemed to be scared of long negotiations between the parties that could form the next coalition. During the day, those gains shrunk to ~ +0,27%, but a gain is a gain. On the chart it means that the DAX continues to trade below the SMA 20, but at least it trades above the important support line at 15 500. The RSI is still below 50. Technically, the si

DAX falling and rebounding as expected

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DAX falling and rebounding as expected An arrogant headline, true. Market breadth data simply nailed it and yesterday, I announced on twitter that anti-cyclical traders will have their chance : Dax nearly touched the lower Envelope band today. The last time this happened was nearly two months ago. The index is trading below its SMA 20 and the McClellan Oscillator reached -2 again. Good chance to buy the dip if you're anti-cyclical. #dax #trading #marketbreadth pic.twitter.com/bmgqJmzXD9 — Boersen Klaus (@boersen_klaus) September 8, 2021   But also the technical chart provided an indication how deep the DAX might fall today. Technical chart and analysis for DAX Technical chart for DAX with Envelopes and RSI, created on tradingview.com The orange trendlines mark the ongoing mini consolidation for the DAX. The limiting line on the top was already present, but it was unclear, at least for me, where its counterpart at the bottom would appear. But after today's trading day, it

Mini break for NASDAQ 100 - for now

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Mini break for NASDAQ 100 - for now The NASDAQ 100 took a mini break from chasing new record highs and is now trading within a narrow range. Technical chart (daily) for the NASDAQ 100 Technical chart (daily) created at tradingview.com The technical chart with the simple Envelopes reveals that the index is no longer considered as overheated and the RSI confirms this. The distance to the SMA 20 remains high but declined a little bit. One earlier high at 15447 serves as a level of confidence while one level above, at 15526, proved itself as a level of support, setting the lower limit for the current trading range.   As long as the index remains above 15 447 on the daily chart, there is nothing to worry about.   Technical chart (hourly) for the NASDAQ 100   Technical chart (hourly) created at tradingview.com   Talking of trading range - the hourly chart of the NASDAQ 100 with modified Evenlope settings gives a nice impression of the current range where a mini break and mini consolidation a

Crypto Market Breadth according to BitPanda's Crypto Index BCI 10 (08.09.2021)

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Crypto Market Breadth according to BitPanda's Crypto Index BCI 10 (08.09.2021) BitPanda's Crypto Index BCI 10 has 10 components. It does not mirror the whole crypto market, but gives an impression about how crypto is currently doing.   Here is the market breadth data for the crypto index BCI 10: Market breadth data for BitPanda's crypto index BCI 10 provided by www.advance-decline.net   The market breadth data surely reflects the current development, meaning the little sell-off we saw during the last 24 hours. We now see less crypto currencies trading above their SMA 50, 100 and 200. The decline is particular strong for the percentage of members trading above their SMA 200 (current value is 60% compared to 2 trading days before where we had 100%). The McClellan Oscillator fell below the zero line and the McCllellan Summation Index started its decline (but is still on a high level, though). If only looking at market breadth, the current state is nothing more than a necessary

Dow Jones below the SMA20 again

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Dow Jones below the SMA 20 again While the NASDAQ 100 loves to create new all-time highs, the Dow Jones seems to be eager to test its current trend range. Dow Jones: Technical situation Technical chart for Dow Jones created at tradingview.com   The Dow Jones fell through the SMA 20 line (which supported the price for more than 10 trading days), ignored the support at 35150 (see pink line in the chart) and stopped at a previously tested trendline within the bigger trend channel.    The next support is located at 34849. Since the price stopped several times at this level, it might be as well considered as a strong support area.   If the current phase of weakness should not grow into a phase of correction, it is crucial that this level will hold. After that, the limiting trendline (currently at 34540) and the lower border of the simple Envelopes (34256) could be the next targets.  From a technical point of view, the Dow Jones has potential for  0,7% - 1,5% more decline.   Market Breadth

Nikkei 225 - rally break or turnaround?

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Nikkei 225 - rally break or turnaround? After some incredible days for Japan's leading stock index it is time to look at the technical and market breadth data. Will we get a glimpse of what's about to happen next? Technical situation of Nikkei 225 Technical chart created at tradingview.com   The Nikkei 225 had a breakout and left the bullish flag behind. After three strong trading days, the price is more than 3,8% away from the upper Envelope border (simple version). According to this measurement, the index is still overheated but since the Envelopes are also rising, they will eventually be on the same level again within a couple of trading days.   Even more interesting is the fact that the SMA 20 is now ~6,7 % away and honestly, this is an extreme value. This underlines the strength of the trend, but also creates some worries since we all know that the price tends to come back to the SMA 20 at some point.    The Nikkei 225 managed to overcome the level at 29480 and the barrier

State of DAX - Calendar Week 35

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State of DAX - Calendar Week 35 It is Sunday again and with the end of this calendar week it is time to look back on the last five trading days and determine the "State of DAX". Before we do that, we take a short look on the recently announced stocks which will increse the DAX member count by 10, from DAX30 to DAX40: Airbus SE Zalando SE Siemens Healthineers AG Symrise AG HelloFresh SE Sartorius AG Vz Porsche Automobil Holding Brenntag SE Puma SE Qiagen N.V. The DAX 30 will be trading as the DAX 40 for the first time on September the 20th. Market Breadth for DAX 30   Here is the latest market breadth data for the German stock index DAX30: Market Breadth Data for DAX provided by https://www.advance-decline.net The Advance Decline Line for DAX declined more than the index did, which could be a sign of weakness. It means that probably only few DAX components hold up the flag for this index. The Advanced vs. Declined data was captured within a narrow range, with a breakout on th

End of correction for Nikkei 225?

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End of correction for the Nikkei 225? Technical chart of the Nikkei 225, the leading stock index in Japan Source: tradingview.com The Nikkei 225 has seen several strong days after bouncing from the support level at 27 000. During the last trading days, it looked like the price will stop at the upper border of the Envelopes (see technical chart above). However, there was some tailwind from politics today which led to another strong trading day. In my version of the technical chart, the Nikkei 225 stopped at the limiting trendline. When looking at the Envelopes, the index is now overheated. The next two treading days will show if the Nikkei 225 will keep its momentum and overcome the limiting area. If so, and if confirmed by another candle, the index will have some potential to maybe 30 700 on the middle timeframe. However, with a distance of roughly 5,7% from the SMA 20, it is unlikely that the index will continue at this speed.  Market Breadth Data for Nikkei 225 The Advance Decline fo

Nikkei 225 slightly overheated 01.09.2021

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Nikkei slightly overheated New month, new "overheated" alert! From my point of view, the Nikkei 225 looks slightly overheated after breaking out from lower levels. Nikkei 225 Market Breadth and Envelopes The price touched the envelopes and almost reached the border of the upper band. The last time the Nikkei 225 crossed the upper Envelopes band was in February 2021. Since then, every time it touched the upper band, it bounced back one trading day later. The Advance decline Line did not rise above the last high, which is some kind of divergence.  The McClellan Oscillator for Nikkei 225 reached the highest level since mid August and the McClellan Summation Index for Nikkei 225 just touched the value 30 line. From a technical point of view, this index is now looking stronger than during the last weeks. It will be interesting to see if the break out will continue. PS: The Nikkei 225 closed above the SMA 200 today. It was closing above the SMA 20 two trading days ago.

State of NASDAQ 100 on last day in August 2021

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State of NASDAQ 100 on the last day in August 2021 Despite the summer season, the NASDAQ 100 index leaves August with gains as high as ~ 3,6 %.    What is the outlook for September? Here is the... Latest Market Breadth Data for NASDAQ 100     NASDAQ 100 Market Breadth Data Visualizations by advance-decline.net As expected yesterday , the NASDAQ 100 bounced away from the border of the upper Envelope band but still remained within the upper band. This means the index is slightly overheated on the daily time frame. The Advanced vs. Declined Data is negative for today.  The McClellan Oscillator also declined, but is still positive. The McClellan Summation Index, however, is climbing, but still negative. NASDAQ 100 Outlook for September Obviously, I can't make any predictions. The seasonality is again not strong for the first weeks of September, and on the technical chart, the Nasdaq 100 just bounced away from an important trend line. At the moment, the chart provides several limits fo

NASDAQ 100 unchained on 30.08.2021

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NASDAQ 100 Unchained Despite my estimation I published with yesterday's blog post , the Nasdaq 100 managed to climb another 1,12% today.  What's our perspective on the current situation?   NASDAQ 100 Market Breadth Data and Envelopes Source: Nasdaq 100 Market Breadth Data    The price stopped at the top border of the upper Envelope band . Really, chances are now very high that the price will move into the opposite direction during the next trading day. Breaking through the upper band is a rare event and happened once per 3 months during the last year (it's not entirely correct, but you get the point). Nasdaq 100 Advances vs. Declines actually declined today. The McClellan Oscillator gives very bullish signals while the McClellan Summation Index is moving towards the zero line with medium speed.

NASDAQ 100 - Interesting Monday ahead (29.08.2021)

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NASDAQ 100 - How the new week could start The NASDAQ 100 has delivered. I don't know if we are going to see a new record high every week until the Tapering begins, but the strength of this index is remarkable. While we can not make any predictions for the next months, we still can look how the chances are for the NASDAQ 100 on Monday. NASDAQ 100 Market Breadth Data The NASDAQ 100 market breadth is provided by https://www.advance-decline.net The image above shows the market breadth for the index NASDAQ 100. What you can't see is that the NASDAQ 100 is moving along a rising trend line, starting on 16.02. and touching it on 26.07., 24.08., 25.08 and on last Friday (27.08.). It looks like that the NASDAQ 100 has troubles crossing this trend line, and often the index touches the upper Envelope band, which is usually a sign of overheating. So there are already two limiting factors, and it might take a very strong impulse for the price to overcome those limits. It is more likely that

Envelopes Indicator now available for all stock indices

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Envelopes Indicator now available for all stock indices About the Envelopes indicator and how we implemented it The Envelopes indicator is a very simple, but powerful way to determine if an index is overheated or oversold (if someone knows the correct opposite of the word "overheated" please let me know..). Basically, the Envelopes are shifted copies of an SMA. On https://www.advance-decline.net we use the SMA20, which is a fast and short-term simple moving average, and then add or subtract a few percentage points (our formula is a bit more complex, but you get the point). This provides two lines - the lower and the upper Envelope line, with each of them having a fixed distance to the middle, the SMA20. From our experience we know that the price tends to oscillate between the upper and the lower Envelope lines. Those lines act as a first line of support or resistance, maybe let's call them "soft resistance and support". Usually, the price will bounce at this li

BCI10 Crypto Index from BitPanda what's happening right now?

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BitPandas BCI 10 Crypto Index: What's happening right now? After a strong weekend for crypto, some major currencies seem to take a break from the rally. The BCI 10 Crypto Index represents 10 crypto currencies and might help us to understand: What's happening right now?   Before I start writing, let's look at the BCI10 Crypto Market Breadth data:   Source: https://www.advance-decline.net/crypto-indices/bci-10/ Dissecting the Crypto Market Breadth Data Some would say crypto was overheated a bit after the last strong weekend.  The McClellan Oscillator dances with its zero line, while the McClellan Summation Index seems to have created a top. Values for this indicator are very high, comparable to the golden times from the beginning of the year. The percentage of BCI 10 members trading above their SMA 50 is very high. The percentage of BCI 10 members trading above their SMA 100 is very high. The percentage of BCI 10 members trading above their SMA 200 is continuously rising and

SDAX loosing momentum? 21-08-2021

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SDAX loosing momentum? The last trading weeks have been great for the German stock index SDAX. But will it continue to rise like this? Market breadth data suggests that this index looses momentum, with the Advance Decline Line and the McClellan Summation Index topping. The McClellan Oscillator even dropped from a value greater than 2 to a negative value, now being below the zero line the second day in a row.

Nikkei 225 reaching new lows (20.08.2021)

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Nikkei 225 index and Advance decline Line reaching new lows On 16.02.2021, Japan's Nikkei 225 index started its correction on a very high level. At the moment, the index is trading 12,77% lower than on that specific day in February this year. Looking at the chart, a new low was reached a couple of hours ago, and even the Advance Decline Line followed the price, also reaching a new low in this correction. The Advanced vs. Declined data, however, went up during the last trading day. This doesn't mean anything yet, though. The McClellan Oscillator declined the third trading day in a row, while the McClellan Summation Index is already on day four of declining. Although we reached new lows, it doesn't mean that the correction will gain speed again. When looking at the plain candle chart (we don't have that one here, I know), it actually seems like a bottom could have been reached at the LOW of the last trading day (~ 26 978). This seems to be a support level, at it will be i

Adding India Indices NIFTY 50 NIFTY 100 and many more

Implemented: Market Breadth Data for India indices On Friday I implemented the data collection of market breadth data for the following Indian indices/markets: NIFTY 100 NIFTY 50 NIFTY 500 NIFTY MIDCAP 100 NIFTY MIDCAP 50 NIFTY NEXT 50  I will make the following market breadth indicators available for those indices: NIFTY 100 Advance Decline Line for NIFTY 100 Advanced vs. Declined for NIFTY 100 McClellan Oscillator for NIFTY 100  McClellan Summation Index for NIFTY 100 NIFTY 50 Advance Decline Line for NIFTY 50 Advanced vs. Declined for NIFTY 50 McClellan Oscillator for NIFTY 50 McClellan Summation Index for NIFTY 50  NIFTY 500 Advance Decline Line for NIFTY 500 Advanced vs. Declined for NIFTY 500 McClellan Oscillator for NIFTY 500 McClellan Summation Index for NIFTY 500 NIFTY MIDCAP 100 Advance Decline Line for NIFTY MIDCAP 100 Advanced vs. Declined for NIFTY MIDCAP 100 McClellan Oscillator for NIFTY MIDCAP 100  McClellan Summation Index for NIFTY MIDCAP 100 NIFTY MIDCAP 50 Advance D