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Showing posts with the label envelopes

State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 41 2021

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State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 41 2021 Welcome to the second episode of the blog post series "State of Dow Jones", where we look at the leading US stock index from different perspectives and try to determine how solid the current development is. Technical Chart for Dow Jones Every "State of Dow Jones" blog post should start with the technical chart, so here we go (created on tradingview.com): The Dow Jones overcame the old falling highs and the important resistance at 25 000, now trading at 35 294 points. The index is trading above its SMA 20 again and even went into the upper Envelope band. This means the Dow is slightly overheated and it is likely that the index will show a small pull-back before rising again. The RSI is at 60, three trendlines were identified and crossed during the last trading days. The technical chart provides us with enough confidence to say that the correction might be over and the outlook is neutral, or maybe even slightly bullish. Marke

State of DAX - Calender Week 41 2021

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 State of DAX for Calender Week 41 Welcome to this week's blog post about the state of the DAX. Those who follow us on Twitter might have seen a tweet from Wednesday, stating that there are small signs that the current situations might become better soon:   German stock index #dax - recovery started? #marketbreadth data gets a little bit better (SMA data on first image delayed by one trading day). #dax40 must close above 15 270. SMA 20 is at 15308 (XETRA). pic.twitter.com/LmD3hCF6Dj — Boersen Klaus (@boersen_klaus) October 13, 2021   Shortly afterwards, the DAX began it's climb on the chart. Are we out of the trouble yet? Let's determine that by looking at the index from different perspectives.   Technical Chart for DAX As usual, we'll start with the technical chart for DAX,created on tradingview.com: The SMA 200 band has provided a confident level of support and the DAX managed to climb above the resistance levels 15 270 and 15 500. Also, the falling trendline was

Dow Jones latest market breadth

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Latest Dow Jones Market Breadth Data   Dow Jones market breadth chart by https://www.advance-decline.net I've added some new tools that allow me to view more historical market breadth data for Dow Jones. I can now look back from April 2020 until today and this helps me to understand how the Dow Jones is doing today. Similar to the graphics I use with the state of DAX, I will generate this market breadth dashboard only when writing blog posts. I've not automated everything yet, so there can't be automated uploads to the website. The McClellan Oscillator for Dow Jones is below the zero line, but advancing. This doesn't look that bad. The McClellan Summation Index for Dow Jones declined, and compared to its high from May 2021, it's a huge decline (from ~ 48 to ~ 4,6). This is bearish. Some words on the technical situation: At the moment the Envelopes are not touched, so the index is not oversold. The index is trading below the SMA 20, though, and the RSI is still belo

State of DAX - Calender Week 39

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State of DAX - Calender Week 39 The end of September was reached and October is finally here. What a month! September was brought the DAX losses > - 3,5%, as this blog post about relative index performance shows . People from the crypto scene are already talking about the "Uptober", because they expect that September is the weakest month of the year and it can only get better. While BitCoin, Ethereum and other crypto currencies already show signs of improvement, this can not be said for the German stock index DAX. So - where is this index standing and what can be expected from the next days or weeks? Technical Chart for DAX DAX technical chart created at tradingview.com   Let's face it: The DAX is captured within the range from 15 000 to 16 000. In this range, it is still trading below the SMA 20 and it even crossed the area around 15 000 again. Envelopes state that the index is oversold. The RSI is below 40 and points downwards, aiming at 30. That's the negative p

Dow Jones and DAX quick analysis

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Dow Jones and DAX quick analysis The first trading day after the elections in Germany is over. Reason enough to take a quick look at the DAX. Its bigger brother, the Dow Jones, is always an interesting index so I don't need a particular reason for a quick analysis. DAX situation Technical chart for DAX created at tradingview.com The DAX started very good into this trading day with gains around ~ +1,21%. Experts say that many investors liked that the outcome of the elections in Germany make an unwanted constellation for a government coalition impossible. Instead, stability can be expected from the next German government. Other investors seemed to be scared of long negotiations between the parties that could form the next coalition. During the day, those gains shrunk to ~ +0,27%, but a gain is a gain. On the chart it means that the DAX continues to trade below the SMA 20, but at least it trades above the important support line at 15 500. The RSI is still below 50. Technically, the si

Dow Jones sprinting back to neutral zone

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Dow Jones sprinting back to neutral zone Not there yet: After after a quick test of an old high from April (!), the Dow Jones aims to return to a neutral zone. Let's look at both the technical and the market breadth aspects. Technical perspective on Dow Jones Technical chart for Dow Jones created on tradingview.com   The Dow Jones fell through the lower Envelope bands and touched the old all-time high from April at ~ 33 623. Technically, the Dow Jones was in a short-term oversold zone for three trading days.   While the dip from 16th July ended at the rising trendline and was a healthy "higher low", this time the dip left the existing uptrend and also marked a "lower low" compared to the last dip (bearish on short-term). However, this was still an "higher low" compared to the dip we've seen on June the 18th (bullish on middle-term).   The price tried to return to it's SMA 20 but failed at breaking through the barrier at ~ 34 850 / 34 900. Also,

Dow Jones Roundup (10.09.2021)

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Dow Jones Roundup - Technical and Market Breadth This week played along with weak seasonality, providing no tailwind for the Dow Jones. After 4 trading days this week, losses have stacked up to ~ 2,16%. Reason enough for us to have a quick look at the leading US index. Dow Jones Technical Chart Technical chart for Dow Jones created at tradingview.com At first it looked like the zone around 34 900 might provide a level of support for the Dow Jones on its way down, but one trading day later the price fell through this area and landed on the trendline we've seen since mid of June. The last time this trendline acted as a spring-board back to the top. Will it be the same this time? The chance could be higher that the Dow Jones will remain near the 34 900 area for a while than the other scenario we've seen last time, where another short-term rally was started. On Friday, the upper boundaries of the lower Envelopes band crossed the trendline, so this was a strong indicator that the cu

DAX falling and rebounding as expected

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DAX falling and rebounding as expected An arrogant headline, true. Market breadth data simply nailed it and yesterday, I announced on twitter that anti-cyclical traders will have their chance : Dax nearly touched the lower Envelope band today. The last time this happened was nearly two months ago. The index is trading below its SMA 20 and the McClellan Oscillator reached -2 again. Good chance to buy the dip if you're anti-cyclical. #dax #trading #marketbreadth pic.twitter.com/bmgqJmzXD9 — Boersen Klaus (@boersen_klaus) September 8, 2021   But also the technical chart provided an indication how deep the DAX might fall today. Technical chart and analysis for DAX Technical chart for DAX with Envelopes and RSI, created on tradingview.com The orange trendlines mark the ongoing mini consolidation for the DAX. The limiting line on the top was already present, but it was unclear, at least for me, where its counterpart at the bottom would appear. But after today's trading day, it

Nikkei 225 - rally break or turnaround?

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Nikkei 225 - rally break or turnaround? After some incredible days for Japan's leading stock index it is time to look at the technical and market breadth data. Will we get a glimpse of what's about to happen next? Technical situation of Nikkei 225 Technical chart created at tradingview.com   The Nikkei 225 had a breakout and left the bullish flag behind. After three strong trading days, the price is more than 3,8% away from the upper Envelope border (simple version). According to this measurement, the index is still overheated but since the Envelopes are also rising, they will eventually be on the same level again within a couple of trading days.   Even more interesting is the fact that the SMA 20 is now ~6,7 % away and honestly, this is an extreme value. This underlines the strength of the trend, but also creates some worries since we all know that the price tends to come back to the SMA 20 at some point.    The Nikkei 225 managed to overcome the level at 29480 and the barrier

End of correction for Nikkei 225?

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End of correction for the Nikkei 225? Technical chart of the Nikkei 225, the leading stock index in Japan Source: tradingview.com The Nikkei 225 has seen several strong days after bouncing from the support level at 27 000. During the last trading days, it looked like the price will stop at the upper border of the Envelopes (see technical chart above). However, there was some tailwind from politics today which led to another strong trading day. In my version of the technical chart, the Nikkei 225 stopped at the limiting trendline. When looking at the Envelopes, the index is now overheated. The next two treading days will show if the Nikkei 225 will keep its momentum and overcome the limiting area. If so, and if confirmed by another candle, the index will have some potential to maybe 30 700 on the middle timeframe. However, with a distance of roughly 5,7% from the SMA 20, it is unlikely that the index will continue at this speed.  Market Breadth Data for Nikkei 225 The Advance Decline fo

Dow Jones somewhat in the middle of nowhere

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Dow Jones somewhat in the middle of nowhere   Technical chart (1h) of the Dow Jones index Source: tradingview.com  The Dow Jones remains on a high level in a sideways phase for roughly 10 consecutive days. The SMA 20 (orange line) works as a stabilizer for now, although we've seen a dip beneath this line during the day. The Dow Jones also moves within a trend channel  (see image above). Right in the middle of this channel another trendline emerged, at apparently the SMA20 and this "middle trendline" come close today. So for now, this area seems to be a strong support.    You know that I am a big fan of the Envelopes indicator, since it is a very simple way to find out if an index is overheated or not. I've added a very simple version of the Envelopes to the chart above. As you can see, it confirms that the Dow Jones seems to be in the middle of nowhere because the price dances around the middle of the Envelopes as well (and the middle is the SMA 20 line). The red line

NASDAQ 100 following a strong trendline

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NASDAQ 100 following a strong trendline I've been covering the NASDAQ 100 multiple times during the last days as you've seen. The reason for this is that this leading tech index shows an incredible strength despite the Tapering discussions and the various risks which emerged during the last weeks. Together with you, I want to understand where the chances and risks are for this index. NASDAQ 100 Chart Source: tradingview.com The image above shows a simple NASDAQ 100 chart with the leading trendlines. As you can see, there is a corridor limited by a supporting trendline and a line which might be a resistance line. The index has touched this upper line multiple times and has been trading just beneath it for four days in a row. I believe that this trendline is of great importance and chances are high that the NASDAQ 100 will not cross it soon (just my personal opinion). At the moment, this trendline also crosses the upper border of the Envelopes, so there is even another resistance

TecDax incredibly strong 01.09.2021

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 TecDax - current state The German tech stock index TecDax shows an incredible strength. According to the market breadth data available on advance-decline.net , the TecDax is no longer overheated but remains on high levels. The price is currently a few milimeters below the upper Envelopes band.  The McClellan Summation Index shows the highest value for weeks, but the McClellan Oscillator is actually jumping towards the zero line. This could be a warn signal that an important area will be reached soon and that the index will stop its fulminant rally.

Nikkei 225 slightly overheated 01.09.2021

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Nikkei slightly overheated New month, new "overheated" alert! From my point of view, the Nikkei 225 looks slightly overheated after breaking out from lower levels. Nikkei 225 Market Breadth and Envelopes The price touched the envelopes and almost reached the border of the upper band. The last time the Nikkei 225 crossed the upper Envelopes band was in February 2021. Since then, every time it touched the upper band, it bounced back one trading day later. The Advance decline Line did not rise above the last high, which is some kind of divergence.  The McClellan Oscillator for Nikkei 225 reached the highest level since mid August and the McClellan Summation Index for Nikkei 225 just touched the value 30 line. From a technical point of view, this index is now looking stronger than during the last weeks. It will be interesting to see if the break out will continue. PS: The Nikkei 225 closed above the SMA 200 today. It was closing above the SMA 20 two trading days ago.

NASDAQ 100 unchained on 30.08.2021

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NASDAQ 100 Unchained Despite my estimation I published with yesterday's blog post , the Nasdaq 100 managed to climb another 1,12% today.  What's our perspective on the current situation?   NASDAQ 100 Market Breadth Data and Envelopes Source: Nasdaq 100 Market Breadth Data    The price stopped at the top border of the upper Envelope band . Really, chances are now very high that the price will move into the opposite direction during the next trading day. Breaking through the upper band is a rare event and happened once per 3 months during the last year (it's not entirely correct, but you get the point). Nasdaq 100 Advances vs. Declines actually declined today. The McClellan Oscillator gives very bullish signals while the McClellan Summation Index is moving towards the zero line with medium speed.

NASDAQ 100 - Interesting Monday ahead (29.08.2021)

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NASDAQ 100 - How the new week could start The NASDAQ 100 has delivered. I don't know if we are going to see a new record high every week until the Tapering begins, but the strength of this index is remarkable. While we can not make any predictions for the next months, we still can look how the chances are for the NASDAQ 100 on Monday. NASDAQ 100 Market Breadth Data The NASDAQ 100 market breadth is provided by https://www.advance-decline.net The image above shows the market breadth for the index NASDAQ 100. What you can't see is that the NASDAQ 100 is moving along a rising trend line, starting on 16.02. and touching it on 26.07., 24.08., 25.08 and on last Friday (27.08.). It looks like that the NASDAQ 100 has troubles crossing this trend line, and often the index touches the upper Envelope band, which is usually a sign of overheating. So there are already two limiting factors, and it might take a very strong impulse for the price to overcome those limits. It is more likely that

Envelopes Indicator now available for all stock indices

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Envelopes Indicator now available for all stock indices About the Envelopes indicator and how we implemented it The Envelopes indicator is a very simple, but powerful way to determine if an index is overheated or oversold (if someone knows the correct opposite of the word "overheated" please let me know..). Basically, the Envelopes are shifted copies of an SMA. On https://www.advance-decline.net we use the SMA20, which is a fast and short-term simple moving average, and then add or subtract a few percentage points (our formula is a bit more complex, but you get the point). This provides two lines - the lower and the upper Envelope line, with each of them having a fixed distance to the middle, the SMA20. From our experience we know that the price tends to oscillate between the upper and the lower Envelope lines. Those lines act as a first line of support or resistance, maybe let's call them "soft resistance and support". Usually, the price will bounce at this li

NASDAQ 100 Market Breadth - Will this index continue to advance?

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NASDAQ 100 Market Breadth - Where will the leading tech index go? Yesterday I already covered the Nasdaq 100 index and its market breadth data. Today I want to check what changed and if I was right about today's development: Advanced vs. Declined reached a positive extreme today, so there is a high chance that the index will have only small or no advances during the next trading day at all.  This turned out to be true. The Nasdaq 100 gained 0,29% today, which is good, but it's not a big jump. Advanced vs. Declined Data was in good balance today, so for tomorrow, there would be much room on the positive and the negative extreme. Technical analysts might look at the chart and see three things: There was a light bearish divergence with the RSI during the last weeks (but it's resolved now) The NASDAQ 100 is near a topping trend line which was touched end of July for the last time The NASDAQ 100 reached the upper side of a statistic corridor, meaning it is highly unlikly that