State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 41 2021

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State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 41 2021 Welcome to the second episode of the blog post series "State of Dow Jones", where we look at the leading US stock index from different perspectives and try to determine how solid the current development is. Technical Chart for Dow Jones Every "State of Dow Jones" blog post should start with the technical chart, so here we go (created on tradingview.com): The Dow Jones overcame the old falling highs and the important resistance at 25 000, now trading at 35 294 points. The index is trading above its SMA 20 again and even went into the upper Envelope band. This means the Dow is slightly overheated and it is likely that the index will show a small pull-back before rising again. The RSI is at 60, three trendlines were identified and crossed during the last trading days. The technical chart provides us with enough confidence to say that the correction might be over and the outlook is neutral, or maybe even slightly bullish. Marke

Dow Jones roundup

A quick roundup for Dow Jones

Dow Jones Market Breadth

With this blog post I will provide the latest market breadth data for the Dow Jones index. At the time of writing, the data for today was not delivered yet by our provider, this is why today is not yet included yet in the dashboard.

Here is the long-term view of Dow Jone's market breadth data (image provided by https://www.advance-decline.net):


 

The McClellan Summation Index for Dow Jones allows comparing the strength of the summer months with today's situation. We can clearly see that bulls have their troubles with the Dow Jones index.

Here is the middle-term view of Dow Jone's market breadth data (image provided by https://www.advance-decline.net) so we can get into detail:


The McClellan Oscillator for Dow Jones recovered and is now above the zero line again. This is a slightly bullish sign.

The McClellan Summation Index stopped declining but still has very low values. Maybe we will see a bottom here.

Now to the interesting part: The percentage of index members trading above their SMA 50, SMA 100 and SMA 200 reached their low at Sep21/22. Since then, this indicator has recovered slightly.

At the moment, the percentage of index members trading above their SMA 50 is at 33,33%, for SMA 100 it's 43,44% and for SMA 200 it's 60%. The trend for those graphs is no longer downwards.

From a technical point of view, the Dow Jones might be stable for now:

Image created on tradingview.com

The index stayed above the 33 810 mark which is the old high from April 09.

The index is no longer oversold, but still below it's SMA 20. Today, I also realized that a trendline can be drawn from a low in January until Sep20 and Oct 04. Today, the index stopped at this trendline and had an intraday reversal.

The RSI also looks better now (see image above).

Dow Jones still doesn't look bullish, but a bearish scenario begins to fade.

Two marks are now very important:

- The Dow Jones must trade above 34528 again and ideally reconquer 35 050.

- Also, it should trade above its SMA 20 again

If the Dow Jones falls below 33 810, the SMA 200 provides another level of support. However, this would be the last significant support and then the next stop could be 32 000. For me, this scenario is not too likely, though.


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