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Showing posts from September, 2021

State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 41 2021

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State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 41 2021 Welcome to the second episode of the blog post series "State of Dow Jones", where we look at the leading US stock index from different perspectives and try to determine how solid the current development is. Technical Chart for Dow Jones Every "State of Dow Jones" blog post should start with the technical chart, so here we go (created on tradingview.com): The Dow Jones overcame the old falling highs and the important resistance at 25 000, now trading at 35 294 points. The index is trading above its SMA 20 again and even went into the upper Envelope band. This means the Dow is slightly overheated and it is likely that the index will show a small pull-back before rising again. The RSI is at 60, three trendlines were identified and crossed during the last trading days. The technical chart provides us with enough confidence to say that the correction might be over and the outlook is neutral, or maybe even slightly bullish. Marke

Indices performance in September

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Relative performance of stock indices in September Probably the chart of the month: The image above shows the relative performance of selected stock indices. As you can see, most indices performed badly during September. Only Nikkei 225 was able to carry some gains into the next month. HangSeng > -6% Nasdaq 100 > -5% Dow Jones ~ -4% Dax ~ -3,5% Nikkei 225 ~ +2,7%   Relative indices performance of last 6 months   Relative indices performance of last 12 months   Relative indices performance of last 12 months compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin: From 100% to 406% Ethereum: From 100% to 840%

Dow Jones and DAX quick analysis

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Dow Jones and DAX quick analysis The first trading day after the elections in Germany is over. Reason enough to take a quick look at the DAX. Its bigger brother, the Dow Jones, is always an interesting index so I don't need a particular reason for a quick analysis. DAX situation Technical chart for DAX created at tradingview.com The DAX started very good into this trading day with gains around ~ +1,21%. Experts say that many investors liked that the outcome of the elections in Germany make an unwanted constellation for a government coalition impossible. Instead, stability can be expected from the next German government. Other investors seemed to be scared of long negotiations between the parties that could form the next coalition. During the day, those gains shrunk to ~ +0,27%, but a gain is a gain. On the chart it means that the DAX continues to trade below the SMA 20, but at least it trades above the important support line at 15 500. The RSI is still below 50. Technically, the si

State of DAX - Calendar Week 38

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State of DAX - Calender Week 38 Vacation is over and another "State of DAX" report is due. During the past two weeks, we've seen a dip, realized that Evergrande in China is no longer able to pay out the investors and we still deal with the "usual" problems, such as the Corona pandemic. In addition, the amount of DAX components grew from 30 to 40. Lots of things are moving the DAX and it will be interesting to look at the state of the German stock index. Technical Chart for DAX DAX technical chart created at tradingview.com The DAX fell through the lower Envelope band and gave a clear oversold signal on the short-term time window. At the moment, the price is again between the Envelope bands but failed to reconquer the SMA 20. As long as the price is between the SMA 20 and the lower Envelope band, I speak of a bearish or weak phase on the short-term time window. At least the DAX managed to trade above 15 500 again, an important area of support and resistance. Howe

Dow Jones sprinting back to neutral zone

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Dow Jones sprinting back to neutral zone Not there yet: After after a quick test of an old high from April (!), the Dow Jones aims to return to a neutral zone. Let's look at both the technical and the market breadth aspects. Technical perspective on Dow Jones Technical chart for Dow Jones created on tradingview.com   The Dow Jones fell through the lower Envelope bands and touched the old all-time high from April at ~ 33 623. Technically, the Dow Jones was in a short-term oversold zone for three trading days.   While the dip from 16th July ended at the rising trendline and was a healthy "higher low", this time the dip left the existing uptrend and also marked a "lower low" compared to the last dip (bearish on short-term). However, this was still an "higher low" compared to the dip we've seen on June the 18th (bullish on middle-term).   The price tried to return to it's SMA 20 but failed at breaking through the barrier at ~ 34 850 / 34 900. Also,

Vacation Time Roundup (2021)

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Vacation Time Roundup (2021) What happened during the last 10 days? Vacation is over :( and it is time to catch up with the markets. What happened during the last 10 days? blog.advance-decline.net listed as a Top 100 Trading Blog on Feedspot I'm happy to announce that Feedspot recently included this little blog here into its list of the Top 100 Trading Blogs in the web. Feedspot helps you to discover and follow interesting blogs covering various topics, including trading and investing. Check out their website if you are open to discover new and interesting blogs! Major indices dropped The chart above visualizes the price development for selected indices during the last 10 days, compared to market opening on day one. Almost all selected indices declined and did not recover yet from the sharp drop we've seen with its lowest low on September the 20th: The German tech stock index TECDAX gained 0,74% during this period The indices NASDAQ 100, Dow Jones, SDAX, DAX, TECDAX, MDAX, Ni

Vacation break for up to two weeks

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Boersen Klaus is going on vacation This is a short note to all readers that this blog is taking a small vacation break. We will be back around September the 24th. We wish you a pleasant time and good trading or investment decisions. Cheers!  

State of DAX - Calendar Week 36

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State of DAX - Calendar Week 36 Another seven days have passed since the last episode of our blog post series about the "State of DAX". This time we're looking at a trading week with a small loss (> 1%) while we are in the middle of a period with weak seasonality. Corona, Afghanistan, upcoming elections here in Germany, challenges for the economy, inflation and "interest angst" - there is plenty of reason for investors to stand on the sideline. Oh, and at the end of this month, we will be looking at the DAX 40 instead of the DAX 30. There will be much to talk about in the next weeks!   But let's focus on the state of the leading German stock index by looking at the data. Technical Chart for DAX   DAX technical chart created at tradingview.com   On last Thursday, the DAX touched the lower Envelope band, giving a short-term and small "oversold" signal. On Friday, the index managed to gain some ground again, moving away from the Envelopes, but stil

Dow Jones Roundup (10.09.2021)

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Dow Jones Roundup - Technical and Market Breadth This week played along with weak seasonality, providing no tailwind for the Dow Jones. After 4 trading days this week, losses have stacked up to ~ 2,16%. Reason enough for us to have a quick look at the leading US index. Dow Jones Technical Chart Technical chart for Dow Jones created at tradingview.com At first it looked like the zone around 34 900 might provide a level of support for the Dow Jones on its way down, but one trading day later the price fell through this area and landed on the trendline we've seen since mid of June. The last time this trendline acted as a spring-board back to the top. Will it be the same this time? The chance could be higher that the Dow Jones will remain near the 34 900 area for a while than the other scenario we've seen last time, where another short-term rally was started. On Friday, the upper boundaries of the lower Envelopes band crossed the trendline, so this was a strong indicator that the cu

DAX falling and rebounding as expected

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DAX falling and rebounding as expected An arrogant headline, true. Market breadth data simply nailed it and yesterday, I announced on twitter that anti-cyclical traders will have their chance : Dax nearly touched the lower Envelope band today. The last time this happened was nearly two months ago. The index is trading below its SMA 20 and the McClellan Oscillator reached -2 again. Good chance to buy the dip if you're anti-cyclical. #dax #trading #marketbreadth pic.twitter.com/bmgqJmzXD9 — Boersen Klaus (@boersen_klaus) September 8, 2021   But also the technical chart provided an indication how deep the DAX might fall today. Technical chart and analysis for DAX Technical chart for DAX with Envelopes and RSI, created on tradingview.com The orange trendlines mark the ongoing mini consolidation for the DAX. The limiting line on the top was already present, but it was unclear, at least for me, where its counterpart at the bottom would appear. But after today's trading day, it

Mini break for NASDAQ 100 - for now

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Mini break for NASDAQ 100 - for now The NASDAQ 100 took a mini break from chasing new record highs and is now trading within a narrow range. Technical chart (daily) for the NASDAQ 100 Technical chart (daily) created at tradingview.com The technical chart with the simple Envelopes reveals that the index is no longer considered as overheated and the RSI confirms this. The distance to the SMA 20 remains high but declined a little bit. One earlier high at 15447 serves as a level of confidence while one level above, at 15526, proved itself as a level of support, setting the lower limit for the current trading range.   As long as the index remains above 15 447 on the daily chart, there is nothing to worry about.   Technical chart (hourly) for the NASDAQ 100   Technical chart (hourly) created at tradingview.com   Talking of trading range - the hourly chart of the NASDAQ 100 with modified Evenlope settings gives a nice impression of the current range where a mini break and mini consolidation a

Crypto Market Breadth according to BitPanda's Crypto Index BCI 10 (08.09.2021)

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Crypto Market Breadth according to BitPanda's Crypto Index BCI 10 (08.09.2021) BitPanda's Crypto Index BCI 10 has 10 components. It does not mirror the whole crypto market, but gives an impression about how crypto is currently doing.   Here is the market breadth data for the crypto index BCI 10: Market breadth data for BitPanda's crypto index BCI 10 provided by www.advance-decline.net   The market breadth data surely reflects the current development, meaning the little sell-off we saw during the last 24 hours. We now see less crypto currencies trading above their SMA 50, 100 and 200. The decline is particular strong for the percentage of members trading above their SMA 200 (current value is 60% compared to 2 trading days before where we had 100%). The McClellan Oscillator fell below the zero line and the McCllellan Summation Index started its decline (but is still on a high level, though). If only looking at market breadth, the current state is nothing more than a necessary

Dow Jones below the SMA20 again

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Dow Jones below the SMA 20 again While the NASDAQ 100 loves to create new all-time highs, the Dow Jones seems to be eager to test its current trend range. Dow Jones: Technical situation Technical chart for Dow Jones created at tradingview.com   The Dow Jones fell through the SMA 20 line (which supported the price for more than 10 trading days), ignored the support at 35150 (see pink line in the chart) and stopped at a previously tested trendline within the bigger trend channel.    The next support is located at 34849. Since the price stopped several times at this level, it might be as well considered as a strong support area.   If the current phase of weakness should not grow into a phase of correction, it is crucial that this level will hold. After that, the limiting trendline (currently at 34540) and the lower border of the simple Envelopes (34256) could be the next targets.  From a technical point of view, the Dow Jones has potential for  0,7% - 1,5% more decline.   Market Breadth

Nikkei 225 - rally break or turnaround?

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Nikkei 225 - rally break or turnaround? After some incredible days for Japan's leading stock index it is time to look at the technical and market breadth data. Will we get a glimpse of what's about to happen next? Technical situation of Nikkei 225 Technical chart created at tradingview.com   The Nikkei 225 had a breakout and left the bullish flag behind. After three strong trading days, the price is more than 3,8% away from the upper Envelope border (simple version). According to this measurement, the index is still overheated but since the Envelopes are also rising, they will eventually be on the same level again within a couple of trading days.   Even more interesting is the fact that the SMA 20 is now ~6,7 % away and honestly, this is an extreme value. This underlines the strength of the trend, but also creates some worries since we all know that the price tends to come back to the SMA 20 at some point.    The Nikkei 225 managed to overcome the level at 29480 and the barrier

State of DAX - Calendar Week 35

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State of DAX - Calendar Week 35 It is Sunday again and with the end of this calendar week it is time to look back on the last five trading days and determine the "State of DAX". Before we do that, we take a short look on the recently announced stocks which will increse the DAX member count by 10, from DAX30 to DAX40: Airbus SE Zalando SE Siemens Healthineers AG Symrise AG HelloFresh SE Sartorius AG Vz Porsche Automobil Holding Brenntag SE Puma SE Qiagen N.V. The DAX 30 will be trading as the DAX 40 for the first time on September the 20th. Market Breadth for DAX 30   Here is the latest market breadth data for the German stock index DAX30: Market Breadth Data for DAX provided by https://www.advance-decline.net The Advance Decline Line for DAX declined more than the index did, which could be a sign of weakness. It means that probably only few DAX components hold up the flag for this index. The Advanced vs. Declined data was captured within a narrow range, with a breakout on th

End of correction for Nikkei 225?

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End of correction for the Nikkei 225? Technical chart of the Nikkei 225, the leading stock index in Japan Source: tradingview.com The Nikkei 225 has seen several strong days after bouncing from the support level at 27 000. During the last trading days, it looked like the price will stop at the upper border of the Envelopes (see technical chart above). However, there was some tailwind from politics today which led to another strong trading day. In my version of the technical chart, the Nikkei 225 stopped at the limiting trendline. When looking at the Envelopes, the index is now overheated. The next two treading days will show if the Nikkei 225 will keep its momentum and overcome the limiting area. If so, and if confirmed by another candle, the index will have some potential to maybe 30 700 on the middle timeframe. However, with a distance of roughly 5,7% from the SMA 20, it is unlikely that the index will continue at this speed.  Market Breadth Data for Nikkei 225 The Advance Decline fo

Dow Jones somewhat in the middle of nowhere

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Dow Jones somewhat in the middle of nowhere   Technical chart (1h) of the Dow Jones index Source: tradingview.com  The Dow Jones remains on a high level in a sideways phase for roughly 10 consecutive days. The SMA 20 (orange line) works as a stabilizer for now, although we've seen a dip beneath this line during the day. The Dow Jones also moves within a trend channel  (see image above). Right in the middle of this channel another trendline emerged, at apparently the SMA20 and this "middle trendline" come close today. So for now, this area seems to be a strong support.    You know that I am a big fan of the Envelopes indicator, since it is a very simple way to find out if an index is overheated or not. I've added a very simple version of the Envelopes to the chart above. As you can see, it confirms that the Dow Jones seems to be in the middle of nowhere because the price dances around the middle of the Envelopes as well (and the middle is the SMA 20 line). The red line

NASDAQ 100 following a strong trendline

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NASDAQ 100 following a strong trendline I've been covering the NASDAQ 100 multiple times during the last days as you've seen. The reason for this is that this leading tech index shows an incredible strength despite the Tapering discussions and the various risks which emerged during the last weeks. Together with you, I want to understand where the chances and risks are for this index. NASDAQ 100 Chart Source: tradingview.com The image above shows a simple NASDAQ 100 chart with the leading trendlines. As you can see, there is a corridor limited by a supporting trendline and a line which might be a resistance line. The index has touched this upper line multiple times and has been trading just beneath it for four days in a row. I believe that this trendline is of great importance and chances are high that the NASDAQ 100 will not cross it soon (just my personal opinion). At the moment, this trendline also crosses the upper border of the Envelopes, so there is even another resistance

TecDax incredibly strong 01.09.2021

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 TecDax - current state The German tech stock index TecDax shows an incredible strength. According to the market breadth data available on advance-decline.net , the TecDax is no longer overheated but remains on high levels. The price is currently a few milimeters below the upper Envelopes band.  The McClellan Summation Index shows the highest value for weeks, but the McClellan Oscillator is actually jumping towards the zero line. This could be a warn signal that an important area will be reached soon and that the index will stop its fulminant rally.

Nikkei 225 slightly overheated 01.09.2021

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Nikkei slightly overheated New month, new "overheated" alert! From my point of view, the Nikkei 225 looks slightly overheated after breaking out from lower levels. Nikkei 225 Market Breadth and Envelopes The price touched the envelopes and almost reached the border of the upper band. The last time the Nikkei 225 crossed the upper Envelopes band was in February 2021. Since then, every time it touched the upper band, it bounced back one trading day later. The Advance decline Line did not rise above the last high, which is some kind of divergence.  The McClellan Oscillator for Nikkei 225 reached the highest level since mid August and the McClellan Summation Index for Nikkei 225 just touched the value 30 line. From a technical point of view, this index is now looking stronger than during the last weeks. It will be interesting to see if the break out will continue. PS: The Nikkei 225 closed above the SMA 200 today. It was closing above the SMA 20 two trading days ago.