State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 41 2021

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State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 41 2021 Welcome to the second episode of the blog post series "State of Dow Jones", where we look at the leading US stock index from different perspectives and try to determine how solid the current development is. Technical Chart for Dow Jones Every "State of Dow Jones" blog post should start with the technical chart, so here we go (created on tradingview.com): The Dow Jones overcame the old falling highs and the important resistance at 25 000, now trading at 35 294 points. The index is trading above its SMA 20 again and even went into the upper Envelope band. This means the Dow is slightly overheated and it is likely that the index will show a small pull-back before rising again. The RSI is at 60, three trendlines were identified and crossed during the last trading days. The technical chart provides us with enough confidence to say that the correction might be over and the outlook is neutral, or maybe even slightly bullish. Marke

State of NASDAQ 100 on last day in August 2021

State of NASDAQ 100 on the last day in August 2021

Despite the summer season, the NASDAQ 100 index leaves August with gains as high as ~ 3,6 %. 
 
What is the outlook for September?

Here is the...

Latest Market Breadth Data for NASDAQ 100

 

 


As expected yesterday, the NASDAQ 100 bounced away from the border of the upper Envelope band but still remained within the upper band. This means the index is slightly overheated on the daily time frame.
The Advanced vs. Declined Data is negative for today. 
The McClellan Oscillator also declined, but is still positive.
The McClellan Summation Index, however, is climbing, but still negative.

NASDAQ 100 Outlook for September

Obviously, I can't make any predictions. The seasonality is again not strong for the first weeks of September, and on the technical chart, the Nasdaq 100 just bounced away from an important trend line. At the moment, the chart provides several limits for advancing prices. It is more likely for the NASDAQ 100 to pull back during the next days.
 
Market breadth shows a mixed picture. The Advance Decline Line shows no real divergences, so there is no signal there. The McClellan Oscillator failed to establish itself above the zero line for more than 3 consecutive days. One could speculate that this reflects some kind of weakness and that we will see a couple of days with negative values there, supporting my theory from above that we might have a pull back for this index.


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