State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 41 2021

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State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 41 2021 Welcome to the second episode of the blog post series "State of Dow Jones", where we look at the leading US stock index from different perspectives and try to determine how solid the current development is. Technical Chart for Dow Jones Every "State of Dow Jones" blog post should start with the technical chart, so here we go (created on tradingview.com): The Dow Jones overcame the old falling highs and the important resistance at 25 000, now trading at 35 294 points. The index is trading above its SMA 20 again and even went into the upper Envelope band. This means the Dow is slightly overheated and it is likely that the index will show a small pull-back before rising again. The RSI is at 60, three trendlines were identified and crossed during the last trading days. The technical chart provides us with enough confidence to say that the correction might be over and the outlook is neutral, or maybe even slightly bullish. Marke

State of Dax - Calendar Week 33

State of Dax - Calendar Week 33

Welcome to another episode of my little blog post series about the "State of Dax", this time for the ending calendar week 33.

Last week on Sunday I was able to point out that the Dax reached a new all-time. Since then, the Dax lost a few points. So - what's the current health state and what is the outlook for new week?

All Market Breadth Data for DAX

Let's jump right into the data. Here is the dashboard with the index and the market breadth indicators:


 

Dissecting the chart dashboard and the market breadth data for DAX

Let's try to talk about what we see on the chart dashboard above:

  • Advance Decline Line for DAX:
    • The Avance Decline Line seems to follow the index step-by-step, I see no divergences here, only "harmony" ;)
  •  Advanced vs. Declined for DAX:
    • Since the beginning of August, the net advances tend to move within a small corridor, only undermining the sideways trend we are in
  • McClellan Oscillator for DAX:
    •  After being above the zero line for 11 trading days in a row, the McClellan Oscillator dropped from 1,17 to 0,11 within one day; this is a neutral position and the next trading days will hopefully better data
  • McClellan Summation Index for Dax:
    • The McClellan Summation Index formed a bottom between the end of July and the beginning of August. On 2021-08-16, the indicator went above the zero line for the first time since mid of June. This is a positive sign. However, the indicator already formed a small top. Let's stay cautious here.
  • Percentage of members trading above their SMA50:
    •  The percentage of Dax members trading above their SMA50 declined to ~ 46 %, which is the lowest value since the beginning of August
  • Percentage of members trading above their SMA 100:
    • The percentage of Dax members trading above their SMA100 declined just a little bit and is now at 53%
  • Percentage of members trading above their SMA 200:
    • The percentage of Dax members trading above their SMA 200 dropped to 70%, which is the lowest value since 2021-07-20


To sum this up:
  • Advance Decline Line: No big change here
  • McClellan Oscillator: Neutral
  • McClellan Summation Index: Slightly improved
  • % of dax components above their SMA 50: Declined
  • % of dax components above their SMA 100: Declined
  • % of dax components above their SMA 200: Declined
 
The short-term outlook tends to be a bit negative when looking at the small summary above, but I would put in in other words:
The market breadth data doesn't look too strong, but also not too negative either.
Let's agree on the Dax being stable and let's not expect too much from German stock index during the next trading days. Some even might say we should consider the current state as strong since the Dax did not have any real huge sell-off during the summer season (at least not until today). 




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