State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 41 2021

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State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 41 2021 Welcome to the second episode of the blog post series "State of Dow Jones", where we look at the leading US stock index from different perspectives and try to determine how solid the current development is. Technical Chart for Dow Jones Every "State of Dow Jones" blog post should start with the technical chart, so here we go (created on tradingview.com): The Dow Jones overcame the old falling highs and the important resistance at 25 000, now trading at 35 294 points. The index is trading above its SMA 20 again and even went into the upper Envelope band. This means the Dow is slightly overheated and it is likely that the index will show a small pull-back before rising again. The RSI is at 60, three trendlines were identified and crossed during the last trading days. The technical chart provides us with enough confidence to say that the correction might be over and the outlook is neutral, or maybe even slightly bullish. Marke
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State of Dax - Calendar Week 32

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Hello and welcome to today's blog post about the

State of Dax

for Calendar Week 32

 

This is the first blog post involving the Dax since this index reached a new all-time high a couple of days ago. It will be interesting to see what the state of the DAX is compared to last week.

So - what is the current state of the German stock index DAX?

 

Big picture: All your market breadth indicators for DAX

Of course I will provide you with the latest data for the market breadth indicators.
Here is the usual indicator chart dashboard:





The indicators in detail

  • Advance Decline Line for DAX:
    •  Same as last week - the Advance Decline Line reflects the price movement
  • Advanced vs. Declined for DAX:
    •  Looking almost identical to last week - no changes here
  • McClellan Oscillator for DAX
    •  Clearly bullish now, almost reaching the threshold value "2", where the indicator usually tends to fall again; for the next days it would be highly unlikely that this indicator will continue to rise for more than one or two more days
  • McClellan Summation Index for DAX
    •  Last value from Friday is -0,37 (rounded), so almost at the zero line; if this indicator is above zero, some would see this as a signal to enter the market; however, as I said, the short-term indicator McClellan Oscillator is almost overheated, so I am not sure if for short-term windows the timing would be good  to enter a trade
  • Percentage of Dax members trading above their SMA50:
    •  70% of DAX members currently trade above their SMA50, which is a bigger value than we saw a week ago; clearly confirming the positive trend
  • Percentage of Dax members trading above their SMA100:
    • 63,33%,  slightly higher than last week
  • Percentage of Dax members trading above their SMA200:
    •  80%, no change compared to last week

Last week I claimed that a new all-time high could be imminent, and the breadth data of the last trading days supported this statement. Now for the next trading days, I expect that the DAX could cool off a bit, however, for the long-term, the outlook seems to be positive.

Don't forget that August is a weak trading month where trading volume is low. So let's not give our signals to much weight.


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