State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 41 2021

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State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 41 2021 Welcome to the second episode of the blog post series "State of Dow Jones", where we look at the leading US stock index from different perspectives and try to determine how solid the current development is. Technical Chart for Dow Jones Every "State of Dow Jones" blog post should start with the technical chart, so here we go (created on tradingview.com): The Dow Jones overcame the old falling highs and the important resistance at 25 000, now trading at 35 294 points. The index is trading above its SMA 20 again and even went into the upper Envelope band. This means the Dow is slightly overheated and it is likely that the index will show a small pull-back before rising again. The RSI is at 60, three trendlines were identified and crossed during the last trading days. The technical chart provides us with enough confidence to say that the correction might be over and the outlook is neutral, or maybe even slightly bullish. Marke

State of Dax - Calendar Week 30

State of Dax - Calendar Week 30

It is weekend again! The last trading month July lies behind us and it is again time for us to take a look at the state of the German stock index DAX.

Let's start!

The last weeks

The last weeks have certainly being interesting. The Dax is in a sideways trend, with almost no gains or losses during July (+0,08%).

Seasonal effects surely apply during this summer.


Advance Decline Line for Dax, Advanced vs. Declined, McClellan Oscillator and McClellan Summation Index, % of members trading above their SMA50/100/200


As mentioned in previous blog posts, I created a new charting dashboard. It includes all graphs I have in a single interactive dashboard. I can't share this interactive version if you due to missing server resources, but I can export everything as an image.

So well, what's the current state?

  • As you can see, the Advance Decline Line shows no divergence with the index.
  • Advanced vs. Declined reached the lower extreme during the last trading days. Usually, this line tends to oscillate between two extremes, so it might be okey to assume that the next trading days will be more successful (for bulls) than the previous ones.
  • The McClellan Oscillator is more or less in a neutral position
  • The McClellan Summation Index remains below the 0 line; one could argue that a bottom is being formed. Some anti-cyclical traders or investors with manual timing could speculate that the McClellan Summation Index will not fall any further
  • The % of members trading above their SMA 50 line declined again and again reached the threshold of ~ 38%; the next trading days will show if this threshold will hold or not
  • The % of members trading above their SMA 100 line is still low, but did not decline any further
  • The % of members trading above their SMA 200 line oscillates at the 80% mark. It would be a good sign if this number would stay above the 80% mark for a longer period

 

Within those indicators, bulls have less advantages than bears. In total, the picture is neutral, with a small tendency to bearish.

August is usually a weak month for the Dax.


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