State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 42 2021

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Hi folks! Welcome to another part of the blog post series State of Dow Jones for Calendar Week 42 2021 Part three already. This week has been incredible for those that invested into the Dow Jones. But how healthy is the current price development and what's the outlook?   Technical Chart for Dow Jones Every "State of Dow Jones" blog post should start with the technical chart, so here we go (created on tradingview.com):   The Dow Jones managed to trade above its SMA 20 and also overcame the turquoise trendline / flag which happened to be at the 35 000 resistance level, which became a support shortly afterwards. The index only knew one direction during this week - upwards. The current price movement stopped a few points above the old all-time high and within the upper Envelope band. On the daily time frame, the index now looks slightly overheated. For now, the old all-time high around 35 631 holds, but it wouldn't be a big surprise if there was a small pull-back before t

State of Dax - Calendar Week 30

State of Dax - Calendar Week 30

It is weekend again! The last trading month July lies behind us and it is again time for us to take a look at the state of the German stock index DAX.

Let's start!

The last weeks

The last weeks have certainly being interesting. The Dax is in a sideways trend, with almost no gains or losses during July (+0,08%).

Seasonal effects surely apply during this summer.


Advance Decline Line for Dax, Advanced vs. Declined, McClellan Oscillator and McClellan Summation Index, % of members trading above their SMA50/100/200


As mentioned in previous blog posts, I created a new charting dashboard. It includes all graphs I have in a single interactive dashboard. I can't share this interactive version if you due to missing server resources, but I can export everything as an image.

So well, what's the current state?

  • As you can see, the Advance Decline Line shows no divergence with the index.
  • Advanced vs. Declined reached the lower extreme during the last trading days. Usually, this line tends to oscillate between two extremes, so it might be okey to assume that the next trading days will be more successful (for bulls) than the previous ones.
  • The McClellan Oscillator is more or less in a neutral position
  • The McClellan Summation Index remains below the 0 line; one could argue that a bottom is being formed. Some anti-cyclical traders or investors with manual timing could speculate that the McClellan Summation Index will not fall any further
  • The % of members trading above their SMA 50 line declined again and again reached the threshold of ~ 38%; the next trading days will show if this threshold will hold or not
  • The % of members trading above their SMA 100 line is still low, but did not decline any further
  • The % of members trading above their SMA 200 line oscillates at the 80% mark. It would be a good sign if this number would stay above the 80% mark for a longer period

 

Within those indicators, bulls have less advantages than bears. In total, the picture is neutral, with a small tendency to bearish.

August is usually a weak month for the Dax.


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