State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 41 2021

State of Dow Jones - Calendar Week 41 2021 Welcome to the second episode of the blog post series "State of Dow Jones", where we look at the leading US stock index from different perspectives and try to determine how solid the current development is. Technical Chart for Dow Jones Every "State of Dow Jones" blog post should start with the technical chart, so here we go (created on The Dow Jones overcame the old falling highs and the important resistance at 25 000, now trading at 35 294 points. The index is trading above its SMA 20 again and even went into the upper Envelope band. This means the Dow is slightly overheated and it is likely that the index will show a small pull-back before rising again. The RSI is at 60, three trendlines were identified and crossed during the last trading days. The technical chart provides us with enough confidence to say that the correction might be over and the outlook is neutral, or maybe even slightly bullish. Marke

State of Dax - Calendar Week 29

State of Dax - Calendar Week 29

As usual, I'll walk you through the state of Dax, according to market breadth data.
We're in calendar week 29 and have an interesting trading week behind us!
Let's look at the latest information.


Advance Decline Line and Advanced vs. Declined for Dax

McClellan Oscillator and McClellan Summation Index for Dax

% of Dax members above SMA50, SMA100 and SMA200

Last week's "State of the Dax" blog post mentioned that for the SMA50 a  threshold was reached. More than 50% of the Dax members traded below their SMA50, which means they switched to a downside trend. We're still below that 50%.
I also stated that for the Dax members trading above their SMA 200, a critical threshold was reached (but not breached yet). I claimed that it would not be a good sign if this number decreased any further, but then the huge dip came on the next trading day. Let's see what this graph looks like today:

The 80% threshold was breached, the graph went down to 63,3%. After the 19th July, the percentage of Dax members trading above their SMA200 was on the rise again. We're now back at 86,7% which fits it very well in the range we had before from 11th May until last week. Note that 86,7% seems to be a resistance level.

By the way: The last time the percentage of Dax members above their SMA200 reached 63,3% was back in March. Afterwards, it took the Dax members one month to climb to the peak of 96,7%.


This week's dip in the Dax was a small opportunity for all those who like to do short-time anti-cyclic trading. 
Signals coming from breadth indicators don't point downwards, but not upwards either. During the next 1-2 trading days, we might see a small price decline again because there was such a strong reaction on this week's dip.


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