Crypto Market Barometer released on

  Crypto Market Barometer released Today I published my simple but easy-to-read Crypto Market Barometer on our website Click here to get to the new Crypto Market Barometer. This is how the main chart looks like: What's behind the new Crypto Market Barometer We believe that one simple but effective method of gauging the health of a market is to look at how many of the most important individual assets trade above their important SMAs. Since SMAs are a proven way of determining the current trend, a market must be in an uptrend, if more than 50% of its biggest assets trade above their long-term SMAs. If they trade below their long-term SMAs, they must be in a downtrend. For the crypto market, I decided to check the popular BitPanda Crypto Index BCI10. It contains the 10 biggest crypto currencies by market capitalization, and frankly, by only looking at BitCoin, Ethereum, Polkadot and maybe Binance, we already have most of the market covered (again, in

State of Dax - Calendar Week 27


Let's have a look at the biggest stock market index in Germany, the DAX (30) (or sometimes also called GER 30).
What is the state of Dax as of 11.07.2021? There is a small surprise hidden in the data this week.

DAX members above SMA50, SMA100 and SMA 200

Compared to last week, more members are now above their SMA 50, but fewer are above SMA 100. The number of index members above SMA 200 did not change.
Those are still good values, showing that the trend is sideways, but there is no big warn signal regarding bearish scenarios.
Let's see how those values developed during the last 90 days:

Those lines undermine the fact that the positive trend turned into a sideways trend, with fewer index members being on the (fast) rise.
But, for the first time since end of April, the amount of index members trading above their SMA 50 has become bigger than the amount of index members trading above their SMA 100. This is a positive signal, however not necessarily a strong one since it needs further confirmation.
The best way to look at the data would be that a very bearish scenario for the upcoming weeks has become less likely.

Breadth data - advanced vs. declined, McClellan and so on


The ADVANCE DECLINE LINE did not change much during this trading week. When only looking at the last 10 days, we've seen a lower low on Thursday, but it's not something to worry about since this lower low his higher than the previous low on the bigger time frame (30.06.2021).  The ADVANCE DECLINE LINE simply confirms the sideways trend at the moment, with a very small bullish outlook.
The ADVANCED vs. DECLINED indicator oscillated between bigger extremes during the last 10 days, which is not necessarily bad. One could use this indicator as a confirmation for anti-cyclic trading decisions. 

On the short time frame, the McClellan Oscillator doesn't give so many clear signals at the moment. If you're relying on this indicator, you should wait for your next moves until clear signals form out. 
On the long time frame, the McClellan Summation Index looks more interesting. If you are into anti-cyclic or swing trading, this might be the signal you're looking for.


When looking at this technical data only, there is more reason to be optimistic than being pessimistic. If you are looking at time windows which are not days but several weeks, there is a good chance that the Dax will attract enough buyers to move upwards. However, let's not become too enthusiastic, since we are not looking at very big moves at the moment. 


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